VERIFIED RESULT
Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Dortmund: eleven late finals and forecast impact
Dortmund top eight: 50.98% to 25.21%. Eleven new finals plus a correction for nine omitted 17 September Europa League scores update three matched forecasts.
Football model analysis
130 dated reports explain how verified results, confirmed transfers and carefully separated counterfactuals change the model. Every article preserves its evidence state and links back to the live forecast.
VERIFIED RESULTS105
CONFIRMED TRANSFERS22
ACTIVE HYPOTHETICALS0
PUBLIC REPORTS130
LATEST MODEL-MOVING EVENTS
A source-gated football analysis archive
Confirmed evidence can change the core forecast. A hypothetical never does. Result reports use verified final scores and all entries remain available as a dated record.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Official Champions League draw: corrected forecast and 14 October results
All 144 official fixtures replace provisional opponents. AEK's top-eight chance changes from 48.56% to 9.73%; separate controls isolate Liverpool's and Feyenoord's wins.
VERIFIED RESULT
Eight Championship results on 13 October: model impact
Bolton's relegation probability falls from 21.76% to 14.44% after eight verified finals are rerun across 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Arsenal 3-0 Lille and seven Champions League results: model impact
Lille's top-24 chance falls from 47.66% to 23.01% after Arsenal's verified 3-0 win; six more late finals are locked into the 100,000-path forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Lens 0-2 Sporting, Sabah 2-0 Slavia: Champions League model impact
Sporting's away win raises their top-eight probability from 46.32% to 64.40%; Sabah's top-24 chance climbs from 23.82% to 39.03%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League model impact
Coventry's relegation probability falls from 74.93% to 57.21% after the verified home win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Torino 2-1 Udinese: Serie A model impact
Torino's relegation probability falls from 23.87% to 17.19% after the verified home win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Atalanta 3-1 Venezia: Serie A model impact
Atalanta's top-four probability rises from 18.66% to 21.89% after the verified home win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Troyes 0-2 Marseille: Ligue 1 model impact
Marseille's top-six probability rises from 44.90% to 51.28% after the verified away win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Real Betis 5-2 CA Osasuna: La Liga model impact
Betis' top-four probability rises from 66.01% to 69.74% after the verified win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan: Serie A model impact
Milan's top-four probability falls from 25.66% to 23.14% after the verified draw in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City: Premier League model impact
Manchester City's title probability rises from 47.23% to 68.68% after the verified 3-0 away win, while Liverpool's top-four probability falls to 37.32%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: Premier League model impact
Palace move from 16th to 12th in the predicted final table and cut relegation probability from 23.01% to 10.55% after the verified home win.
VERIFIED RESULT
Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth: Championship model impact
Southampton's automatic-promotion probability rises from 34.52% to 38.88% after the verified derby win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Napoli 3-0 Frosinone: Serie A model impact
Napoli's top-four probability rises from 55.93% to 60.89% after the verified three-goal win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Lorient 1-0 Paris FC: Ligue 1 model impact
Paris FC's top-four probability falls from 27.80% to 21.81% after Lorient's verified home win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Forest Green 2-4 Hartlepool: National League model impact
Hartlepool's relegation probability falls from 35.18% to 25.86% after the verified 4-2 away win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
RB Leipzig 6-0 Frankfurt: Bundesliga model impact
Leipzig's top-four probability rises from 51.49% to 57.39% after the verified six-goal win in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham: Premier League model impact
The 1-1 draw cuts Manchester United's top-four probability from 26.86% to 20.31%, while Tottenham's relegation probability falls from 23.26% to 15.93%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth: Premier League model impact
Chelsea's emphatic win lifts their top-four probability from 15.42% to 30.01% and moves them from seventh to fifth in predicted final standings.
VERIFIED RESULT
Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon: League One model impact
Plymouth's stoppage-time winner lifts their title probability from 33.14% to 35.84% in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds: Premier League model impact
Arsenal’s comeback lifts their title probability from 31.02% to 36.40% in 100,000 matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen: Bundesliga model impact
Werder's late comeback cuts Dortmund's title probability by 5.44 percentage points and removes 1.4 projected points.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Official 2026/27 Conference League fixtures: model impact
UEFA's 108-match league-phase schedule replaces the provisional draw, cutting Freiburg's top-eight probability from 64.68% to 18.83% in matched paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Chesterfield 4-2 Tranmere Rovers: League Two model impact
Chesterfield's home win raises their automatic-promotion probability by 2.88 percentage points to 56.21% and moves them from 11th to sixth in the live table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Eastleigh 1-1 Southend United: National League model impact
Southend's away draw lowers their title probability by 3.17 percentage points to 29.00%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Boreham Wood 3-1 Kidderminster Harriers: National League model impact
Boreham Wood's home win raises their title probability by 3.70 percentage points to 62.19%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Oldham Athletic 1-4 Salford City: League Two model impact
Salford's away win raises their automatic-promotion probability by 6.94 percentage points and adds 1.8 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Southend United 2-4 Barrow AFC: National League model impact
Barrow's away win cuts Southend's title probability by 8.00 percentage points and reduces Barrow's relegation probability by 11.06 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Plymouth Argyle 0-1 Burton Albion: League One model impact
Burton's away win cuts Plymouth's title probability by 8.55 percentage points and reduces Burton's relegation probability by 10.41 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Olympique de Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain: Ligue 1 model impact
PSG's away win raises their title probability by 7.49 percentage points to 52.03% and adds 1.5 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV Elversberg: Bundesliga model impact
Schalke's goalless home draw raises their relegation probability by 2.43 percentage points and removes 0.7 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Atlético de Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid: La Liga model impact
Atlético's derby win adds 1.6 projected points, raises their top-four probability by 6.88 percentage points and cuts Real Madrid's title chance by 5.37 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig: Bundesliga model impact
Leverkusen's home win adds 1.3 projected points and raises their top-four probability by 6.19 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool: Premier League model impact
Liverpool's away win adds 2.5 projected points and raises their top-four probability by 11.82 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Angers 2-0 Troyes: Ligue 1 model impact
Angers' home win adds 1.7 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 8.97 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund: Bundesliga model impact
Dortmund's away win raises their title probability by 5.65 percentage points and adds 1.6 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry: Premier League model impact
Coventry's first league win adds 5.0 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 14.09 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brighton 3-0 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Brighton's win moves them from sixth to fourth, adds 4.0 projected points and cuts Arsenal's title probability by 22.00 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
Villa's first league win moves them from 12th to ninth, adds 4.1 projected points and raises their top-six probability by 12.92 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Stoke 2-1 Sheffield United: Championship model impact
Stoke's win adds 1.9 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 9.24 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brentford 3-0 Chelsea: Premier League model impact
Brentford's win moves them from eighth to fifth, adds 4.3 projected points and lifts their top-six probability by 21.21 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Europa League model impact
Sunderland's home win raises their top-eight probability by 15.25 percentage points, adds 1.4 projected points and moves them from eighth to fifth.
VERIFIED RESULT
Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Prague: Europa League model impact
Sparta's four-goal away win raises their top-24 probability by 20.05 percentage points, adds 1.6 projected points and moves them from 23rd to 20th.
VERIFIED RESULT
Elche CF 2-3 Real Madrid: La Liga model impact
Real Madrid's stoppage-time winner adds 1.0 projected point and raises their title probability by 3.83 percentage points, while Elche's relegation probability rises by 3.45 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Deportivo Alavés 0-1 Valencia: La Liga model impact
Valencia's away win adds 1.6 projected points, moves them from 10th to eighth and raises their top-seven probability by 4.64 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol: La Liga model impact
Rayo's home win adds 1.2 projected points and raises their top-seven probability by 4.15 percentage points, while Espanyol's relegation probability rises by 2.65 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis: La Liga model impact
Betis' away win raises their top-four probability by 11.99 percentage points and adds 2.1 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Leeds United 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League model impact
Leeds' four-goal win moves them from 11th to seventh, adds 3.3 projected points and lifts their top-six probability by 12.13 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Real Sociedad 0-3 Atlético Madrid: La Liga model impact
Atlético's away win raises their top-four probability by 6.87 percentage points and adds 1.4 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Levante 2-4 Barcelona: La Liga model impact
Barcelona's away win raises their La Liga title probability by 2.51 percentage points and adds 0.6 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Coventry 0-5 Brighton: Premier League model impact
Brighton's five-goal away win moves them from 13th to seventh, adds 4.4 projected points and cuts relegation probability by 6.17 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sheffield United 0-1 Wolves: Championship model impact
Raúl Jiménez's 90th-minute winner raises Wolves' play-off probability by 6.06 percentage points and adds 1.8 projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win moves Sunderland from 17th to 19th, cuts their projection by 2.6 points and raises relegation probability by 11.47 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol: La Liga model impact
Espanyol's away win moves them from 17th to 15th, adds 1.8 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 7.25 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich: Premier League model impact
Ipswich's late away win moves them from 19th to 14th, adds 4.2 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 15.37 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Birmingham win at Derby: Championship model impact
Birmingham's 2-1 away win moves them from ninth to seventh, lifts their projected points by 1.8 and raises their play-off probability by 6.66 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
West Ham 6-0 Wrexham: Championship model impact
West Ham's six-goal win raises their title probability by 5.15 percentage points and their automatic-promotion chance by 6.81 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Stevenage 2-1 Luton: League One model impact
Stevenage's derby win raises their play-off probability by 4.04 percentage points and cuts Luton's automatic-promotion chance by 5.50 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Como 4-1 RB Leipzig: Champions League model impact
Como's historic debut win raises their top-24 probability by 13.51 percentage points and moves them from 19th to 14th in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
PSV 1-1 Shakhtar: Champions League model impact
PSV's home draw lowers their top-24 probability by 14.51 percentage points and moves them from 21st to 25th in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Three Championship results: 9 September model impact
West Brom's win at Derby headlines the completed three-match update, moving Albion from ninth to seventh and lifting their play-off probability by 5.90 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Napoli 0-1 Arsenal: Champions League model impact
Arsenal's away win raises their top-eight probability by 15.33 percentage points and moves them into second in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Barcelona 5-1 Feyenoord: Champions League model impact
Barcelona's five-goal win raises their top-eight probability by 12.81 percentage points and moves them from sixth to fourth in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bolton 2-3 West Ham: Championship model impact
West Ham's away win raises their title probability by 3.96 percentage points and moves them from third to first in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Porto 0-2 Manchester City: Champions League model impact
Haaland's double raises City's direct last-16 probability by 19.41 percentage points and moves them from sixth to second in the projected table.
VERIFIED RESULT
AEK Athens 1-0 LASK: Champions League model impact
AEK's opening win raises their top-eight probability by 6.55 percentage points and lifts them four places in the mean table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bromley 0-2 AFC Wimbledon: League One model impact
AFC Wimbledon's derby win adds 2.1 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 8.65 percentage points, while Bromley's rises by 7.75 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Cagliari 1-0 Lecce: Serie A model impact
Cagliari's win adds 1.4 projected points and cuts their relegation probability by 6.81 percentage points, while Lecce's rises by 6.83 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Marseille 2-3 Paris FC: Ligue 1 model impact
Paris FC's away win raises their top-six probability by 10.06 percentage points and moves Marseille from fourth to sixth in the mean table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 Augsburg: Bundesliga model impact
Augsburg's four-goal second half lifts them three projected places and cuts their relegation probability by 8.26 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Hamburg 0-5 Mainz: Bundesliga model impact
Mainz's five-goal away win lifts their top-six probability by 7.66 percentage points and moves them into sixth in the mean table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo: La Liga model impact
Deportivo's away win cuts their relegation probability by 6.32 percentage points and Villarreal's top-four chance by 10.58 points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Hull 0-0 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
Hull remain unbeaten, but the draw lifts their relegation probability by 2.83 percentage points and moves their mean projected finish from 16th to 19th.
VERIFIED RESULT
Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace: Premier League model impact
Palace's away win cuts their relegation probability by 16.79 percentage points and pushes Fulham's to 32.30%.
VERIFIED RESULT
PSG 1-2 Monaco: Ligue 1 model impact
Monaco's comeback cuts PSG's title probability by 11.03 percentage points and lifts Monaco's to 13.79%.
VERIFIED RESULT
Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool: Premier League model impact
Isak's early double lifts Liverpool's title probability to 8.30% and raises Ipswich's relegation risk to 32.73%.
CONFIRMED AVAILABILITY
Richarlison omitted: Tottenham model impact
The confirmed first-half squad omission cuts Tottenham by 1.0 projected point and raises relegation probability by 3.20 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Luton 2-0 Stockport: League One model impact
Five verified results lift Luton's automatic-promotion probability by 7.73 percentage points.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Hull City's deadline-day six: confirmed model impact
Six minutes-aware additions lift Hull by 1.3 projected points and reduce relegation probability by 5.00 percentage points.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Crystal Palace deadline-day rebuild: confirmed model impact
Five minutes-aware additions lift Palace by 2.0 projected points and reduce relegation probability by 9.83 percentage points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bristol Rovers 2-0 Colchester: League Two model impact
The completed result lifts Bristol Rovers' automatic-promotion probability by 5.05 percentage points.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Enzo Fernandez signs for Manchester City: confirmed model impact
The matched 100,000-path impact of Manchester City's confirmed Enzo Fernandez signing, using an 82% expected-minutes share.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Tosin and Mudryk join Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The isolated 100,000-path effect of Tottenham's confirmed double move, with conservative role and minutes assumptions.
VERIFIED RESULT
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win applied to the title race and Aston Villa's projected finish.
VERIFIED RESULT
Osasuna 1-0 Getafe: La Liga model impact
The completed result applied to Osasuna's survival outlook and Getafe's projected points.
VERIFIED RESULT
Southampton four-point deduction: Championship model impact
The verified EFL sanction applied to Southampton's live table and promotion probabilities.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Bradley Barcola joins Liverpool: confirmed model impact
The completed signing applied to Liverpool's projected points, title and top-four probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Napoli 1-2 Como: Serie A model impact
Como's away win applied to both clubs' title, top-four and projected-points outlooks.
VERIFIED RESULT
Mansfield 5-2 Luton: League One model impact
The seven-goal result applied to Mansfield and Luton's automatic-promotion probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Augsburg 3-0 Schalke: Bundesliga model impact
The opening win applied to Augsburg's survival outlook and Schalke's predicted finish.
VERIFIED RESULT
Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich: Premier League model impact
The five-goal win applied to United's top-four outlook and Ipswich's survival probability.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Ollie Watkins joins Al Hilal: confirmed Aston Villa impact
The confirmed departure applied to Aston Villa's projected points and top-six probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham: Premier League model impact
The home win applied to Sunderland's survival outlook and Fulham's projected finish.
VERIFIED RESULT
Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen: Bundesliga model impact
The opening win applied to Freiburg's top-six outlook and Werder Bremen's survival probability.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Emiliano Martinez joins Chelsea: confirmed model impact
The confirmed goalkeeper transfer applied to Chelsea and Aston Villa's Premier League forecasts.
VERIFIED RESULT
Levante 5-2 Real Betis: La Liga model impact
The five-goal win applied to Levante's survival outlook and Betis' top-four probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Auxerre 1-3 Angers: Ligue 1 model impact
The away win applied to Angers' survival outlook and Auxerre's projected finish.
VERIFIED RESULT
Elversberg 3-2 Leverkusen: Bundesliga model impact
The opening-day upset applied to Leverkusen's top-four outlook and Elversberg's survival probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest: Premier League model impact
The completed draw applied to Liverpool's top-four outlook and Nottingham Forest's survival probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Forest Green 0-3 Boreham Wood: National League impact
The completed result applied to the National League promotion and relegation forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Omar Marmoush joins Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Tottenham's points and major season outcomes.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Liam Delap joins Nottingham Forest: model impact
The confirmed transfer applied to Nottingham Forest's projected points and season outcome probabilities.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Ayyoub Bouaddi joins Manchester City: confirmed impact
The confirmed midfield arrival measured against Manchester City's previous model baseline.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Carlos Baleba to Manchester United: confirmed model impact
The confirmed transfer applied to Manchester United's team strength and season forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Savio signs for Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed winger arrival applied to Tottenham's points and Europe probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea: Premier League model impact
How the completed London derby moved Chelsea and Fulham across the published season forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Rennes 2-2 PSG: Ligue 1 title model impact
The draw reconciled into the Ligue 1 table and title probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
The verified score applied to both clubs' projected points and outcome probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Stockport 1-2 Blackpool: League One model impact
The completed result applied to the League One promotion and relegation forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Parma 0-1 Cagliari: Serie A model impact
The away win's effect on both clubs' Serie A season outcomes.
VERIFIED RESULT
Udinese 1-1 Como: Serie A model impact
The completed draw incorporated into the Serie A table and probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brentford 3-0 Tottenham: Premier League model impact
The verified result applied to both clubs' current season paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bristol Rovers 5-3 Newport: League Two model impact
The eight-goal result reconciled into the League Two forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Hull 2-0 Manchester United: Premier League model impact
The result's effect on projected points, Europe and relegation probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg: Ligue 1 model impact
The result applied to Ligue 1's current standings and forecast table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Arsenal 3-0 Coventry: Premier League model impact
How the completed result changed the title and survival outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Curtis Jones signs for Inter: confirmed model impact
The confirmed departure applied to Liverpool's current season probabilities.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Ezri Konsa to Arsenal: confirmed model impact
The confirmed defender move measured across Arsenal's title and top-four chances.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Aaron Wan-Bissaka to Aston Villa: confirmed model impact
The confirmed full-back move applied to Aston Villa's defensive strength and season forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Bradford: League One model impact
The completed result applied to the League One promotion forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Joao Cancelo to Barcelona: confirmed model impact
The transfer's model effect on Barcelona and the relevant competition forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Tijjani Reijnders leaves Manchester City: model impact
The confirmed departure applied to Manchester City's title and qualification outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Amar Dedic to Newcastle: confirmed model impact
The confirmed signing applied to Newcastle's team strength and season outcomes.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Rodri to Barcelona: Manchester City model impact
The confirmed midfield departure measured against Manchester City's previous baseline.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Taiwo Awoniyi to Coventry: confirmed model impact
The confirmed striker move applied to Coventry's attack and survival outlook.
VERIFIED RESULT
Racing 2-2 Villarreal: La Liga model impact
The draw applied to the live La Liga forecast and projected table.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Julio Enciso to Ipswich: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Ipswich's projected points and survival probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Watford 2-1 Southampton: promotion race impact
The completed Championship result applied to both clubs' promotion outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Romero and Spence confirmed: Tottenham model impact
The confirmed Tottenham departures applied to their current forecast baseline.
Evidence state is part of the story
Official confirmation is required before a transfer changes the live model. High-confidence rumours may be explored only as clearly labelled counterfactuals with separate assumptions and no effect on the published baseline.
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