VERIFIED RESULT
Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest: Premier League model impact
The completed draw applied to Liverpool's top-four outlook and Nottingham Forest's survival probability.
Football model analysis
34 dated reports explain how verified results, confirmed transfers and carefully separated counterfactuals change the model. Every article preserves its evidence state and links back to the live forecast.
VERIFIED RESULTS16
CONFIRMED TRANSFERS15
ACTIVE HYPOTHETICALS3
PUBLIC REPORTS34
LATEST MODEL-MOVING EVENTS
A source-gated football analysis archive
Confirmed evidence can change the core forecast. A hypothetical never does. Result reports use verified final scores and all entries remain available as a dated record.
HYPOTHETICAL
Jackson is confirmed. What if Watkins leaves Aston Villa?
A matched-path Aston Villa counterfactual measuring the confirmed Jackson arrival and a possible Watkins departure.
VERIFIED RESULT
Forest Green 0-3 Boreham Wood: National League impact
The completed result applied to the National League promotion and relegation forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Omar Marmoush joins Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Tottenham's points and major season outcomes.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Liam Delap joins Nottingham Forest: model impact
The confirmed transfer applied to Nottingham Forest's projected points and season outcome probabilities.
HYPOTHETICAL
What if Bradley Barcola joins Liverpool?
A clearly labelled counterfactual showing how a possible Barcola move could change Liverpool's season probabilities.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Ayyoub Bouaddi joins Manchester City: confirmed impact
The confirmed midfield arrival measured against Manchester City's previous model baseline.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Carlos Baleba to Manchester United: confirmed model impact
The confirmed transfer applied to Manchester United's team strength and season forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Savio signs for Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed winger arrival applied to Tottenham's points and Europe probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea: Premier League model impact
How the completed London derby moved Chelsea and Fulham across the published season forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Rennes 2-2 PSG: Ligue 1 title model impact
The draw reconciled into the Ligue 1 table and title probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
The verified score applied to both clubs' projected points and outcome probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Stockport 1-2 Blackpool: League One model impact
The completed result applied to the League One promotion and relegation forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Parma 0-1 Cagliari: Serie A model impact
The away win's effect on both clubs' Serie A season outcomes.
VERIFIED RESULT
Udinese 1-1 Como: Serie A model impact
The completed draw incorporated into the Serie A table and probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Brentford 3-0 Tottenham: Premier League model impact
The verified result applied to both clubs' current season paths.
VERIFIED RESULT
Bristol Rovers 5-3 Newport: League Two model impact
The eight-goal result reconciled into the League Two forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Hull 2-0 Manchester United: Premier League model impact
The result's effect on projected points, Europe and relegation probabilities.
VERIFIED RESULT
Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg: Ligue 1 model impact
The result applied to Ligue 1's current standings and forecast table.
VERIFIED RESULT
Arsenal 3-0 Coventry: Premier League model impact
How the completed result changed the title and survival outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Curtis Jones signs for Inter: confirmed model impact
The confirmed departure applied to Liverpool's current season probabilities.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Ezri Konsa to Arsenal: confirmed model impact
The confirmed defender move measured across Arsenal's title and top-four chances.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Aaron Wan-Bissaka to Aston Villa: confirmed model impact
The confirmed full-back move applied to Aston Villa's defensive strength and season forecast.
VERIFIED RESULT
Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Bradford: League One model impact
The completed result applied to the League One promotion forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Joao Cancelo to Barcelona: confirmed model impact
The transfer's model effect on Barcelona and the relevant competition forecast.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Tijjani Reijnders leaves Manchester City: model impact
The confirmed departure applied to Manchester City's title and qualification outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Amar Dedic to Newcastle: confirmed model impact
The confirmed signing applied to Newcastle's team strength and season outcomes.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Rodri to Barcelona: Manchester City model impact
The confirmed midfield departure measured against Manchester City's previous baseline.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Taiwo Awoniyi to Coventry: confirmed model impact
The confirmed striker move applied to Coventry's attack and survival outlook.
VERIFIED RESULT
Racing 2-2 Villarreal: La Liga model impact
The draw applied to the live La Liga forecast and projected table.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Julio Enciso to Ipswich: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Ipswich's projected points and survival probability.
VERIFIED RESULT
Watford 2-1 Southampton: promotion race impact
The completed Championship result applied to both clubs' promotion outlook.
CONFIRMED TRANSFER
Romero and Spence confirmed: Tottenham model impact
The confirmed Tottenham departures applied to their current forecast baseline.
HYPOTHETICAL
What if Enzo Fernandez joins Manchester City?
A clearly labelled counterfactual that leaves the live core forecast unchanged.
Evidence state is part of the story
Official confirmation is required before a transfer changes the live model. High-confidence rumours may be explored only as clearly labelled counterfactuals with separate assumptions and no effect on the published baseline.