Sporting lose 3-2 to LASK — top-eight chance falls to 30.49%
Seven independently corroborated late finals update the matched 100,000-path Champions League forecast. Sporting's home defeat produces the largest swing; Real Betis, Club Brugge and Aston Villa all strengthen their top-eight positions.
SPORTING 2-3 LASKVerified final
SPORTING TOP EIGHT61.42% → 30.49%
PREDICTED FINISH4th → 10th
MATCHED PATHS100,000
Sporting fall six predicted places
The defeat removes 2.5 projected points, taking Sporting from 15.9 to 13.4. Their modeled top-eight probability falls by 30.93 percentage points.
LASK rise from 34th to 30th predicted and from 5.1 to 7.7 projected points. Their top-24 chance rises from 6.88% to 25.36%.
LATE FINALS
Seven completed results
Real Betis climb from 10th to 7th predicted, with top-eight probability rising from 27.98% to 45.17%.
Verification and assumptions
- The before run leaves only the seven 21 October late fixtures unresolved while retaining the other 47 verified league-phase finals.
- The after run locks seven independently corroborated finals before simulating every remaining league-phase fixture.
- Both forecasts use the same original seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, official draw and model settings, so differences isolate this result batch.
- Current standings from completed results remain distinct from predicted final standings.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 21 October 2026. Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
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