The latest signal from 100,000 season paths
This public briefing is generated only from the published HORIZON 6.2 artifact. It never treats an unconfirmed transfer report or an unverified bookmaker quote as a model input.
SEASON PATHS100,000
COMPETITIONS12
RUN HASHf7087d41
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%
LATEST MATERIAL SIGNAL
Coventry 0-1 Hull: two Pro Value Finder edges landed
Hull DNB 3.00 | +16.86% EV Hull +0.5 1.90 | +8.12% EV Pre-match model probabilities beat the market on both Hull positions. Historical prices. 18+
Inspect the evidence →TITLE RACE
Current Premier League leaders
Mean points and finish probabilities come directly from the persisted forecast artifact.
| Club | Mean points | Title | Top four |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 73.6 | 48.6% | 89.2% |
| Manchester City | 69.1 | 23.9% | 75.6% |
| Chelsea | 64.1 | 11.4% | 53.5% |
| Liverpool | 59.9 | 4.1% | 34.5% |
| Manchester United | 58.6 | 3.3% | 30.0% |
GOLDEN BOOT MODEL
Current top-goalscorer probabilities
These are model probabilities, not bookmaker prices or guarantees.
| Player | Club | Expected goals | Win | Top four |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 25.9 | 45.3% | 77.0% |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 18.5 | 11.3% | 38.7% |
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | 18.6 | 10.8% | 39.8% |
| Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 16.8 | 5.9% | 28.2% |
| Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 15.4 | 3.0% | 19.6% |
EXPLORE THE FULL MODEL
Move from the briefing into every competition.
Inspect fixtures, tables, probability maps, run-ins and scenarios across the English pyramid, Europe and UEFA club competitions.
Open all competitions →