Path frequency
A 25% probability means that outcome occurred in roughly one quarter of the published season paths.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
Sunderland have the highest current relegation probability at 62.15% from 100,000 season paths. The model resolves all remaining fixtures and applies completed results before counting the bottom three.
MODEL LEADERSunderland
RELEGATION CHANCE62.15%
PROJECTED POINTS37.1
SEASON PATHS100,000
THE DIRECT ANSWER
Premier League relegation probabilities
Sunderland have the highest current relegation probability at 62.15% from 100,000 season paths. The model resolves all remaining fixtures and applies completed results before counting the bottom three.
| Probability rank | Club | Current | Predicted | Projected points | 90% points range | Relegation chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunderland | 17 | 20 | 37.1 | 25-49 | 62.15% |
| 2 | Coventry City | 14 | 19 | 38.0 | 26-50 | 57.21% |
| 3 | Hull City | 8 | 18 | 40.9 | 28-53 | 42.10% |
| 4 | Fulham | 20 | 17 | 42.5 | 30-55 | 30.81% |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 18 | 15 | 45.9 | 33-58 | 17.70% |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 14 | 46.3 | 33-59 | 17.55% |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 15 | 16 | 45.8 | 34-58 | 17.46% |
| 8 | Ipswich Town | 10 | 13 | 47.6 | 34-61 | 15.49% |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 12 | 12 | 47.9 | 36-60 | 11.33% |
| 10 | Everton | 5 | 11 | 50.0 | 38-62 | 7.36% |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 11 | 10 | 50.5 | 38-63 | 6.86% |
| 12 | Leeds United | 7 | 9 | 50.9 | 38-64 | 6.26% |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 16 | 8 | 52.5 | 40-65 | 4.00% |
| 14 | Manchester United | 13 | 7 | 56.6 | 44-69 | 1.26% |
| 15 | Brentford | 4 | 6 | 56.8 | 44-69 | 1.17% |
| 16 | Chelsea | 6 | 5 | 59.1 | 46-72 | 0.73% |
| 17 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 59.9 | 48-72 | 0.33% |
| 18 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 3 | 60.6 | 48-73 | 0.23% |
| 19 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 79.5 | 67-92 | 0.00% |
| 20 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 73.3 | 61-85 | 0.00% |
THE LIVE RACE
Clubs with the most at stake
These are the highest current probabilities in this race. Club pages connect each number to projected points, remaining fixtures and verified transfers.
Verified evidence
Completed results, official transfers and confirmed availability can change the baseline.
Rumours and odds
Unconfirmed reports and bookmaker prices are kept outside the core sporting model.
Ranges, not certainty
Projected points include a 90% interval because many credible season paths remain.
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