Leeds United 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Leeds United currently project to finish 9th on 50.9 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
LEE
CURRENT MEAN FINISH9th
PROJECTED POINTS50.9
90% RANGE38 to 64
regression-adjusted
36 points across the final 25 league matches, with 74% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.099 strength signal
4 arrivals and 12 departures are tracked. 8 carry a first-team model weight.
13th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled balanced after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Leeds match probabilities
H 35%D 28%A 36%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 36%D 27%A 37%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 46%D 26%A 27%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 45%D 26%A 29%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 54%D 25%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Leeds transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Leeds United → Arsenal
ledger onlyLeeds United → Brighton & Hove Albion
model assessedFulham → Leeds United
model assessedEintracht Frankfurt → Leeds United
model assessedManchester City → Leeds United
model assessedSassuolo → Leeds United
model assessedLeeds United → Fiorentina
ledger onlyLeeds United → Manchester United
model assessedLeeds United → Sheffield Wednesday
ledger onlyLeeds United → Released
ledger onlyLeeds United → Released
ledger onlyLeeds United → Released
ledger onlyLeeds United → Released
ledger onlyLeeds United → Young Boys
ledger onlyLeeds United → Schalke 04
model assessedLeeds United → New England Revolution
model assessedLEE PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Leeds model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Leeds United.
result
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds: Premier League model impact
Arsenal’s comeback lifts their title probability from 31.02% to 36.40% in 100,000 matched paths.
result
Leeds United 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League model impact
Leeds' four-goal win moves them from 11th to seventh, adds 3.3 projected points and lifts their top-six probability by 12.13 percentage points.
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