Newcastle United 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Newcastle United currently project to finish 10th on 50.5 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
NEW
CURRENT MEAN FINISH10th
PROJECTED POINTS50.5
90% RANGE38 to 63
regression-adjusted
31 points across the final 25 league matches, with 75% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
-0.034 strength signal
8 arrivals and 15 departures are tracked. 15 carry a first-team model weight.
4th hardest
Remaining schedule index 101, labelled hard after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Newcastle match probabilities
H 43%D 25%A 32%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 45%D 25%A 30%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 49%D 26%A 26%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 43%D 26%A 31%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 29%D 26%A 45%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Newcastle transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Newcastle United → Arsenal
model assessedManchester City → Newcastle United
model assessedLOSC Lille → Newcastle United
model assessedSC Braga → Newcastle United
model assessedMonaco → Newcastle United
model assessedTSG Hoffenheim → Newcastle United
model assessedAjax → Newcastle United
model assessedReims → Newcastle United
model assessedBenfica → Newcastle United
model assessedNewcastle United → Juventus
model assessedNewcastle United → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedNewcastle United → Barcelona
model assessedNewcastle United → Groningen
ledger onlyNewcastle United → York City
ledger onlyNewcastle United → Middlesbrough
ledger onlyNewcastle United → Wolverhampton Wanderers
model assessedNEW PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Newcastle model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Newcastle United.
result
Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League model impact
Coventry's relegation probability falls from 74.93% to 57.21% after the verified home win in 100,000 matched paths.
result
Leeds United 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League model impact
Leeds' four-goal win moves them from 11th to seventh, adds 3.3 projected points and lifts their top-six probability by 12.13 percentage points.
confirmed transfer
Amar Dedic to Newcastle: confirmed model impact
The confirmed signing applied to Newcastle's team strength and season outcomes.
FREE ACCOUNT · NO CARD REQUIRED
Follow your club, not a generic feed
Create your account, then optionally save a Premier League club to a personalised dashboard with its projected finish, projected points and major season probabilities. The live forecast remains free to explore.
- Saved club dashboard
- Live probability view
- Member referral rewards