Chelsea 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Chelsea currently project to finish 5th on 59.1 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
CHE
CURRENT MEAN FINISH5th
PROJECTED POINTS59.1
90% RANGE46 to 72
volatile
28 points across the final 25 league matches, with 56% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
-0.007 strength signal
13 arrivals and 26 departures are tracked. 21 carry a first-team model weight.
16th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled favourable after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Chelsea match probabilities
H 37%D 27%A 36%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 54%D 23%A 22%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 44%D 27%A 30%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 28%D 25%A 46%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 54%D 25%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Chelsea transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Chelsea → Aston Villa
model assessedAston Villa → Chelsea
model assessedAston Villa → Chelsea
model assessedChelsea → Brentford
ledger onlyBrighton & Hove Albion → Chelsea
model assessedRayo Vallecano → Chelsea
model assessedFree agent → Chelsea
model assessedStrasbourg → Chelsea
model assessedCrystal Palace → Chelsea
model assessedSporting CP → Chelsea
model assessedAtalanta → Chelsea
model assessedCorinthians → Chelsea
model assessedKairat Almaty → Chelsea
ledger onlyStrasbourg → Chelsea
ledger onlyWigan Athletic → Chelsea
ledger onlyChelsea → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedCHE PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Chelsea model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Chelsea.
result
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth: Premier League model impact
Chelsea's emphatic win lifts their top-four probability from 15.42% to 30.01% and moves them from seventh to fifth in predicted final standings.
result
Brentford 3-0 Chelsea: Premier League model impact
Brentford's win moves them from eighth to fifth, adds 4.3 projected points and lifts their top-six probability by 21.21 percentage points.
confirmed transfer
Crystal Palace deadline-day rebuild: confirmed model impact
Five minutes-aware additions lift Palace by 2.0 projected points and reduce relegation probability by 9.83 percentage points.
confirmed transfer
Enzo Fernandez signs for Manchester City: confirmed model impact
The matched 100,000-path impact of Manchester City's confirmed Enzo Fernandez signing, using an 82% expected-minutes share.
confirmed transfer
Tosin and Mudryk join Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The isolated 100,000-path effect of Tottenham's confirmed double move, with conservative role and minutes assumptions.
confirmed transfer
Ollie Watkins joins Al Hilal: confirmed Aston Villa impact
The confirmed departure applied to Aston Villa's projected points and top-six probability.
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