Chelsea 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Chelsea currently project to finish 3rd on 64.1 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
CHE
CURRENT MEAN FINISH3rd
PROJECTED POINTS64.1
90% RANGE49 to 79
volatile
28 points across the final 25 league matches, with 56% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.048 strength signal
12 arrivals and 18 departures are tracked. 16 carry a first-team model weight.
17th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled favourable after opponent strength and venue are combined.
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Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Chelsea match probabilities
H 56%D 23%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 58%D 23%A 19%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 68%D 20%A 12%
Modal score 2-0Full match prediction →H 40%D 26%A 34%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 55%D 24%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Chelsea transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Chelsea → Aston Villa
model assessedAston Villa → Chelsea
model assessedChelsea → Brentford
ledger onlyBrighton & Hove Albion → Chelsea
model assessedRayo Vallecano → Chelsea
model assessedFree agent → Chelsea
model assessedStrasbourg → Chelsea
model assessedCrystal Palace → Chelsea
model assessedSporting CP → Chelsea
model assessedAtalanta → Chelsea
model assessedCorinthians → Chelsea
model assessedKairat Almaty → Chelsea
ledger onlyStrasbourg → Chelsea
ledger onlyWigan Athletic → Chelsea
ledger onlyChelsea → Como 1907
model assessedChelsea → Real Madrid
model assessed