Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 55.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE59.1 projected points
Crystal PalaceCRY47.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Crystal Palace scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.2%
9.9%
8.8%
8.4%
6.3%
Chelsea 1.91 · Crystal Palace 1.12
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
49.8% to 59.8%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
5 vs 12
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Crystal Palace.
Matchweek 13
Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.35 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.014 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.043 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.059 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs Crystal Palace?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 55.0%. The draw is 23.8%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace, with an estimated probability of 11.2%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.4% probability.
When is Chelsea vs Crystal Palace?
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace is scheduled for Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional.
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