Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
54 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 8 competitions today. The highest single 1X2 probability is Olympique Lyonnais win at 74.0%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 37 listed kick-off times are provisional.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Derby County vs Swansea CityEFL Championship | 45.4% | 26.2% | 28.3% | 1-112.5% | 1.45-1.09 | Home45.4% | 2.20 · 3.81 · 3.53 |
| 12:30time provisional | Middlesbrough vs West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship | 49.8% | 25.5% | 24.7% | 1-112.1% | 1.55-1.01 | Home49.8% | 2.01 · 3.93 · 4.05 |
| 12:30time provisional | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke CityEFL Championship | 57.0% | 24.0% | 19.0% | 1-013.2% | 1.69-0.86 | Home57.0% | 1.75 · 4.17 · 5.26 |
| 15:00time provisional | Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 49.1% | 25.8% | 25.1% | 1-112.2% | 1.51-1.00 | Home49.1% | 2.04 · 3.87 · 3.99 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bolton Wanderers vs Lincoln CityEFL Championship | 36.4% | 26.6% | 36.9% | 1-112.7% | 1.27-1.28 | Away36.9% | 2.74 · 3.75 · 2.71 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bristol City vs PortsmouthEFL Championship | 41.7% | 26.6% | 31.7% | 1-112.6% | 1.37-1.16 | Home41.7% | 2.40 · 3.76 · 3.16 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cardiff City vs Sheffield UnitedEFL Championship | 40.4% | 26.2% | 33.3% | 1-112.5% | 1.38-1.23 | Home40.4% | 2.47 · 3.81 · 3.00 |
| 15:00time provisional | Charlton Athletic vs Preston North EndEFL Championship | 44.5% | 26.7% | 28.9% | 1-112.6% | 1.40-1.07 | Home44.5% | 2.25 · 3.75 · 3.47 |
| 15:00time provisional | Norwich City vs BurnleyEFL Championship | 49.1% | 25.2% | 25.7% | 1-112.0% | 1.57-1.06 | Home49.1% | 2.04 · 3.97 · 3.89 |
| 15:00time provisional | Southampton vs MillwallEFL Championship | 46.1% | 26.0% | 27.9% | 1-112.4% | 1.47-1.09 | Home46.1% | 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.59 |
| 15:00time provisional | Watford vs West Ham UnitedEFL Championship | 22.9% | 24.7% | 52.4% | 0-112.0% | 0.98-1.63 | Away52.4% | 4.37 · 4.04 · 1.91 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Blackpool vs Peterborough UnitedEFL League One | 57.1% | 21.8% | 21.1% | 1-010.5% | 1.85-1.03 | Home57.1% | 1.75 · 4.59 · 4.75 |
| 12:30time provisional | MK Dons vs Leicester CityEFL League One | 40.6% | 25.0% | 34.3% | 1-111.9% | 1.40-1.26 | Home40.6% | 2.46 · 3.99 · 2.91 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cambridge United vs Huddersfield TownEFL League One | 38.0% | 25.6% | 36.5% | 1-112.2% | 1.31-1.27 | Home38.0% | 2.63 · 3.91 · 2.74 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leyton Orient vs BarnsleyEFL League One | 43.4% | 24.5% | 32.1% | 1-111.6% | 1.49-1.24 | Home43.4% | 2.30 · 4.08 · 3.12 |
| 15:00time provisional | Notts County vs Burton AlbionEFL League One | 48.0% | 24.6% | 27.4% | 1-111.7% | 1.54-1.09 | Home48.0% | 2.08 · 4.07 · 3.65 |
| 15:00time provisional | Plymouth Argyle vs Bradford CityEFL League One | 53.0% | 23.4% | 23.6% | 1-011.3% | 1.68-1.04 | Home53.0% | 1.89 · 4.28 · 4.23 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield Wednesday vs BromleyEFL League One | 44.5% | 25.1% | 30.4% | 1-111.9% | 1.45-1.15 | Home44.5% | 2.25 · 3.98 · 3.29 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stevenage vs Doncaster RoversEFL League One | 47.6% | 25.5% | 26.9% | 1-012.5% | 1.45-1.02 | Home47.6% | 2.10 · 3.92 · 3.72 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stockport County vs Wycombe WanderersEFL League One | 52.8% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 1-011.4% | 1.66-1.03 | Home52.8% | 1.89 · 4.25 · 4.22 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Barnet vs Cheltenham TownEFL League Two | 67.1% | 19.3% | 13.6% | 2-011.6% | 2.13-0.84 | Home67.1% | 1.49 · 5.17 · 7.37 |
| 12:30time provisional | Port Vale vs Crewe AlexandraEFL League Two | 46.6% | 26.1% | 27.3% | 1-112.4% | 1.47-1.06 | Home46.6% | 2.15 · 3.82 · 3.67 |
| 13:00time provisional | Rotherham United vs ChesterfieldEFL League Two | 28.3% | 25.4% | 46.2% | 1-112.1% | 1.14-1.53 | Away46.2% | 3.53 · 3.93 · 2.16 |
| 15:00time provisional | Colchester United vs RochdaleEFL League Two | 35.5% | 27.1% | 37.4% | 1-112.9% | 1.23-1.27 | Away37.4% | 2.82 · 3.69 · 2.68 |
| 15:00time provisional | Crawley Town vs Bristol RoversEFL League Two | 24.7% | 24.7% | 50.6% | 1-111.8% | 1.06-1.63 | Away50.6% | 4.05 · 4.05 · 1.98 |
| 15:00time provisional | Gillingham vs Northampton TownEFL League Two | 36.1% | 27.6% | 36.3% | 1-113.0% | 1.21-1.21 | Away36.3% | 2.77 · 3.62 · 2.75 |
| 15:00time provisional | Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood TownEFL League Two | 53.8% | 24.1% | 22.1% | 1-011.5% | 1.70-1.00 | Home53.8% | 1.86 · 4.15 · 4.52 |
| 15:00time provisional | Newport County vs Tranmere RoversEFL League Two | 47.8% | 25.3% | 26.9% | 1-112.0% | 1.56-1.10 | Home47.8% | 2.09 · 3.95 · 3.72 |
| 15:00time provisional | Oldham Athletic vs Swindon TownEFL League Two | 46.5% | 25.6% | 27.9% | 1-112.2% | 1.52-1.12 | Home46.5% | 2.15 · 3.91 · 3.58 |
| 15:00time provisional | Shrewsbury Town vs Salford CityEFL League Two | 22.2% | 24.8% | 53.0% | 0-112.2% | 0.96-1.63 | Away53.0% | 4.51 · 4.03 · 1.89 |
| 15:00time provisional | Walsall vs Accrington StanleyEFL League Two | 52.7% | 24.5% | 22.8% | 1-111.7% | 1.66-1.00 | Home52.7% | 1.90 · 4.08 · 4.39 |
| 15:00time provisional | York City vs Exeter CityEFL League Two | 49.2% | 25.2% | 25.5% | 1-112.0% | 1.58-1.06 | Home49.2% | 2.03 · 3.97 · 3.92 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30confirmed schedule | Liverpool vs Nottingham ForestPremier League | Final score: 2-2 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 15:00confirmed schedule | AFC Bournemouth vs EvertonPremier League | Final score: 1-1 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Coventry City vs Hull CityPremier League | Final score: 0-1 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League | 44.0% | 24.1% | 31.9% | 1-110.5% | 1.83-1.54 | Home44.0% | 2.27 · 4.15 · 3.13 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30verified result | 1. FC Köln vs TSG HoffenheimBundesliga | Final score: 3-2 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 14:30verified result | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga | Final score: 3-3 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 14:30verified result | 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga | Final score: 0-0 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 14:30verified result | RB Leipzig vs Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga | Final score: 3-0 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 14:30verified result | SV Elversberg vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesliga | Final score: 3-2 | Completed result. Pre-match prices are not reconstructed. | |||||
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SVBundesliga | 68.2% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 2-19.3% | 2.52-1.05 | Home68.2% | 1.47 · 5.54 · 7.29 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00confirmed schedule | Levante UD vs Real BetisLa Liga | 21.2% | 23.5% | 55.3% | 0-111.4% | 0.99-1.75 | Away55.3% | 4.72 · 4.25 · 1.81 |
| 18:00confirmed schedule | Real Sociedad vs RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaLa Liga | 50.7% | 25.0% | 24.3% | 1-111.9% | 1.60-1.02 | Home50.7% | 1.97 · 4.00 · 4.12 |
| 20:30confirmed schedule | Sevilla FC vs Atlético de MadridLa Liga | 29.4% | 25.6% | 45.0% | 1-112.2% | 1.16-1.50 | Away45.0% | 3.40 · 3.91 · 2.22 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15time provisional | RC Strasbourg Alsace vs RC LensLigue 1 | 36.5% | 24.7% | 38.8% | 1-111.7% | 1.36-1.41 | Away38.8% | 2.74 · 4.05 · 2.58 |
| 19:45time provisional | AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCOLigue 1 | 60.5% | 21.4% | 18.1% | 1-011.3% | 1.90-0.93 | Home60.5% | 1.65 · 4.68 · 5.52 |
| 19:45time provisional | FC Lorient vs Estac TroyesLigue 1 | 50.0% | 23.1% | 27.0% | 1-110.8% | 1.73-1.21 | Home50.0% | 2.00 · 4.34 · 3.71 |
| 19:45time provisional | Olympique Lyonnais vs Havre Athletic ClubLigue 1 | 74.0% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 2-011.3% | 2.49-0.83 | Home74.0% | 1.35 · 6.46 · 9.52 |
| 19:45time provisional | Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse FCLigue 1 | 35.9% | 24.6% | 39.5% | 1-111.6% | 1.36-1.44 | Away39.5% | 2.79 · 4.07 · 2.53 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Fiorentina vs FrosinoneSerie A | 48.7% | 25.7% | 25.6% | 1-112.2% | 1.57-1.07 | Home48.7% | 2.05 · 3.89 · 3.90 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Monza vs UdineseSerie A | 35.6% | 27.4% | 37.0% | 1-113.0% | 1.24-1.27 | Away37.0% | 2.81 · 3.65 · 2.70 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Sassuolo vs TorinoSerie A | 41.9% | 26.7% | 31.4% | 1-112.7% | 1.41-1.19 | Home41.9% | 2.39 · 3.75 · 3.18 |
| 19:45confirmed schedule | Juventus vs ParmaSerie A | 60.3% | 23.3% | 16.5% | 1-013.2% | 1.79-0.81 | Home60.3% | 1.66 · 4.30 · 6.07 |
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.