Published 2026/27 schedule captured306 fixtures · 100,000 paths
GERMANY · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Bundesliga

18 clubs · 34 matches each · European qualification and relegation play-off pressure

FORECAST LEADERFC Bayern München68.5% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES3066 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE94%17/18 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,530 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.75 : 1.44Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Bundesliga probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

FC Bayern München

68.5%TITLE

68.5% title probability, 98.8% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

73.9 expected pts63–85 range
02

Borussia Dortmund

18.1%TITLE

18.1% title probability, 88.8% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

66.4 expected pts55–78 range
03

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

5.8%TITLE

5.8% title probability, 69.9% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

61.3 expected pts49–73 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 1

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Fri 28 Aug, 19:30FT · R1
FC Bayern München5–1VfB Stuttgart

HOME59%fair 1.69

DRAW21%fair 4.78

AWAY20%fair 5.01

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 14:30FT · R1
SV Elversberg3–2Bayer 04 Leverkusen

HOME21%fair 4.85

DRAW22%fair 4.61

AWAY58%fair 1.73

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 14:30FT · R1
1. FC Köln3–2TSG Hoffenheim

HOME31%fair 3.28

DRAW24%fair 4.10

AWAY45%fair 2.22

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 14:30FT · R1
1. FC Union Berlin3–3Eintracht Frankfurt

HOME36%fair 2.77

DRAW25%fair 3.93

AWAY38%fair 2.60

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 14:30FT · R1
1. FSV Mainz 050–0SC Paderborn 07

HOME54%fair 1.84

DRAW23%fair 4.33

AWAY22%fair 4.45

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 14:30FT · R1
RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Mönchengladbach

HOME60%fair 1.67

DRAW21%fair 4.70

AWAY19%fair 5.31

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

306 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Bundesliga predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Bundesliga simulator resolves 306 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. FC Bayern München is the forecast leader on 73.9 projected points with a 68.5% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1FC Bayern München73.9 pts68.5%
  2. 2Borussia Dortmund66.4 pts18.1%
  3. 3Bayer 04 Leverkusen61.3 pts5.8%
  4. 4RB Leipzig60.0 pts4.3%
  5. 5VfB Stuttgart59.0 pts3.1%
How does the Bundesliga simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Bundesliga in 2026/27?

FC Bayern München currently leads with a 68.5% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.