Published 2026/27 schedule and verified results through the 10 October afternoon kick-offs captured306 fixtures · 100,000 paths
GERMANY · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Bundesliga

18 clubs · 34 matches each · European qualification and relegation play-off pressure

FORECAST LEADERFC Bayern München58.4% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES30645 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE94%17/18 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,530 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.75 : 1.44Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 10 Oct, 19:10Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Bundesliga probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

FC Bayern München

58.4%TITLE

58.4% title probability, 98.7% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

72.9 expected pts62–83 range
02

Borussia Dortmund

28.6%TITLE

28.6% title probability, 94.8% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

69.3 expected pts58–80 range
03

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

8.6%TITLE

8.6% title probability, 81.2% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

63.8 expected pts53–75 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 6

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
SV ElversbergvFC Augsburg

HOME43%fair 2.32

DRAW25%fair 3.99

AWAY32%fair 3.14

xG 1.68–1.42score 1–1
16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
FC Schalke 04v1. FSV Mainz 05

HOME35%fair 2.85

DRAW25%fair 3.92

AWAY39%fair 2.54

xG 1.47–1.57score 1–1
16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
SV Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07

HOME41%fair 2.41

DRAW25%fair 4.02

AWAY34%fair 2.98

xG 1.67–1.48score 1–1
16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
Hamburger SVvVfB Stuttgart

HOME29%fair 3.47

DRAW24%fair 4.21

AWAY47%fair 2.11

xG 1.43–1.88score 1–1
16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
Borussia MönchengladbachvTSG Hoffenheim

HOME41%fair 2.42

DRAW24%fair 4.09

AWAY34%fair 2.93

xG 1.72–1.54score 1–1
16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR6
1. FC Union BerlinvBorussia Dortmund

HOME19%fair 5.18

DRAW22%fair 4.55

AWAY59%fair 1.70

xG 1.11–2.08score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

306 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Bundesliga predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Bundesliga simulator resolves 306 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. FC Bayern München is the forecast leader on 72.9 projected points with a 58.4% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1FC Bayern München72.9 pts58.4%
  2. 2Borussia Dortmund69.3 pts28.6%
  3. 3Bayer 04 Leverkusen63.8 pts8.6%
  4. 4RB Leipzig59.1 pts2.7%
  5. 5VfB Stuttgart57.9 pts1.6%
  6. 6Sport-Club Freiburg49.2 pts0.1%
  7. 71. FSV Mainz 0547.0 pts0.0%
  8. 8Eintracht Frankfurt44.3 pts0.0%
  9. 9Hamburger SV43.5 pts0.0%
  10. 10TSG Hoffenheim42.9 pts0.0%
  11. 11FC Augsburg40.7 pts0.0%
  12. 12SV Elversberg39.3 pts0.0%
  13. 13SV Werder Bremen37.7 pts0.0%
  14. 14FC Schalke 0437.7 pts0.0%
  15. 15Borussia Mönchengladbach37.0 pts0.0%
  16. 161. FC Union Berlin36.9 pts0.0%
  17. 17SC Paderborn 0736.1 pts0.0%
  18. 181. FC Köln34.8 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest Bundesliga model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the Bundesliga simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Bundesliga in 2026/27?

FC Bayern München currently leads with a 58.4% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.