VERIFIED RESULT · BUNDESLIGA

Leverkusen strengthen their top-four position

The verified 2-0 home win is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on Leverkusen and Leipzig.

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FINAL SCORELeverkusen 2-0 Leipzig

LEVERKUSEN TOP FOUR71.55% → 77.74%

LEVERKUSEN POINTS61.2 → 62.5

LEIPZIG TOP FOUR59.16% → 53.07%

LEVERKUSEN TOP-FOUR SWING

+6.19 percentage points

The home win lifts Leverkusen's top-four probability from 71.55% to 77.74%.

LEVERKUSEN PROJECTED POINTS

61.2 → 62.5

The verified result adds 1.3 points to Leverkusen's projection.

LEIPZIG TOP FOUR

59.16% → 53.07%

Leipzig's top-four probability falls by 6.08 percentage points.

LEIPZIG PROJECTED POINTS

59.1 → 58.0

The defeat removes 1.1 projected points while Leipzig remain fourth.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Bayer Leverkusen against RB Leipzig unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-0 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260920 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed Bundesliga match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates Leverkusen's home win.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

EVIDENCE

Official competition data and independent reporting

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