Matched team paths
Team scoring volume comes from the same 380-fixture HORIZON forecast.
Premier League Golden Boot probability preview
This public preview shows the model leaders from 100,000 matched player and season paths. Pro unlocks the complete player field, fair odds and current win-only analysis. The latest market capture was 15 October 2026 at 05:01.
MODEL LEADERErling Haaland
WIN PROBABILITY61.9%
MODEL RUNS100,000
MARKET MODEWIN ONLY
TERMS GATE
In-season win value · current quoted terms only
The league started on 21 August 2026 at 20:00. Each-way analysis now appears only inside a bounded freshness window after a named bookmaker explicitly confirms the place fraction and paid-place count. When that check expires or the terms change, the app switches to win-only value. If the price capture itself becomes stale, all value verdicts are suppressed until a fresh capture is verified.
PLACE FRACTION—PAID PLACES—
MODEL FORECAST
The five leading Golden Boot probabilities
Win probability includes shared-title settlement and the goal range is the middle 80% of simulated outcomes. Pro reveals the complete player field, top-four equity and fair price for every listed player.
| Player | Club | Mean goals | 80% range | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erling Haaland | Man City | 28.6 | 18–41 | 61.9% |
| 2Igor Thiago | Brentford | 19.3 | 11–28 | 12.3% |
| 3Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 16.3 | 9–25 | 5.8% |
| 4João Pedro | Chelsea | 14.8 | 8–22 | 2.6% |
| 5Yoane Wissa | Newcastle | 13.7 | 7–21 | 1.8% |
ROLE + MINUTES GATE
Gyökeres is no longer on the official value slate.
Arsenal have not started Viktor Gyökeres in their first four league matches. He has played 13 league minutes from the bench. The model now records 0 starts and 13 league minutes, shrinks his projected share of future league minutes to 45%, and blocks every value verdict below the source-gated 60% minutes threshold.
This is a role correction, not a downgrade to his finishing talent. The assumption will move again when verified team sheets and minutes provide new evidence.
LEAGUE STARTS0/4LEAGUE MINUTES13PROJECTED SHARE45%
GOLDEN BOOT PRO
Go from a leaderboard to a complete player market.
See every modelled player, compare fair odds with verified prices and inspect win plus dead-heat-adjusted place value from the same 100,000 matched season paths.
7 days freethen £5.99 monthly or £39.99annually
Unlock Golden Boot Pro →No charge during the trial. Cancel online.01Complete player field
Expected goals, 80% ranges and full win probabilities.
02Fair odds
Model prices and top-four settlement equity for every contender.
03Verified prices
Current bookmaker comparisons with source and capture time.
04Each-way value
Dead-heat-aware win and place expected value under verified terms.
Pro market sources: Oddschecker comparison board ↗ and each-way terms require fresh verification ↗. Prices move and should be rechecked before any decision.
Responsible gambling policy →Independent player inputs
Player goal shares are split from source-gated expected-minutes adjustments, so verified starts, substitute use and absences can change the forecast without changing finishing talent.
Correlated uncertainty
Every path applies correlated club scoring and player role uncertainty.
Dead-heat settlement
Win, top-four and verified paid-place probabilities use dead-heat payout equity.
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Create your account, then optionally save a Premier League club to a personalised dashboard with its projected finish, projected points and major season probabilities. The live forecast remains free to explore.
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