Matched team paths
Team scoring volume comes from the same 380-fixture HORIZON forecast.
Premier League Golden Boot probability preview
This public preview shows the model leaders from 100,000 matched player and season paths. Pro unlocks the complete player field, fair odds and current win-only analysis. The latest market capture was 29 August 2026 at 17:00.
MODEL LEADERErling Haaland
WIN PROBABILITY45.3%
MODEL RUNS100,000
MARKET MODEWIN ONLY
TERMS GATE
In-season win value · current quoted terms only
The league started on 21 August 2026 at 20:00. Each-way analysis now appears only inside a bounded freshness window after a named bookmaker explicitly confirms the place fraction and paid-place count. When that check expires or the terms change, the app switches to win-only value. If the price capture itself becomes stale, all value verdicts are suppressed until a fresh capture is verified.
PLACE FRACTION—PAID PLACES—
MODEL FORECAST
The five leading Golden Boot probabilities
Win probability includes shared-title settlement and the goal range is the middle 80% of simulated outcomes. Pro reveals the complete player field, top-four equity and fair price for every listed player.
| Player | Club | Mean goals | 80% range | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erling Haaland | Man City | 25.9 | 16–37 | 45.3% |
| 2Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 18.5 | 10–28 | 11.3% |
| 3Igor Thiago | Brentford | 18.6 | 11–27 | 10.8% |
| 4Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 16.8 | 10–25 | 5.9% |
| 5Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 15.4 | 9–22 | 3.0% |
GOLDEN BOOT PRO
Go from a leaderboard to a complete player market.
See every modelled player, compare fair odds with verified prices and inspect win plus dead-heat-adjusted place value from the same 100,000 matched season paths.
7 days freethen £5.99 monthly or £39.99annually
Unlock Golden Boot Pro →No charge during the trial. Cancel online.01Complete player field
Expected goals, 80% ranges and full win probabilities.
02Fair odds
Model prices and top-four settlement equity for every contender.
03Verified prices
Current bookmaker comparisons with source and capture time.
04Each-way value
Dead-heat-aware win and place expected value under verified terms.
Pro market sources: BettingOdds best-price board ↗ and named bookmakers with explicit 1/4, four-place terms ↗. Prices move and should be rechecked before any decision.
Responsible gambling policy →Independent player inputs
Player goal shares are independent role, minutes and finishing inputs.
Correlated uncertainty
Every path applies correlated club scoring and player role uncertainty.
Dead-heat settlement
Win and top-four probabilities use dead-heat payout equity.