Path frequency
A 25% probability means that outcome occurred in roughly one quarter of the published season paths.
Who will win the Premier League?
Manchester City are the current model favourites to win the 2026/27 Premier League, with a 68.81% title probability from 100,000 season paths. They project to 79.5 points; the estimate is not a guarantee.
MODEL LEADERMan City
TITLE CHANCE68.81%
PROJECTED POINTS79.5
SEASON PATHS100,000
THE DIRECT ANSWER
Premier League title probabilities
Manchester City are the current model favourites to win the 2026/27 Premier League, with a 68.81% title probability from 100,000 season paths. They project to 79.5 points; the estimate is not a guarantee.
| Probability rank | Club | Current | Predicted | Projected points | 90% points range | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 79.5 | 67-92 | 68.81% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 73.3 | 61-85 | 25.37% |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 3 | 60.6 | 48-73 | 1.85% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 59.9 | 48-72 | 1.33% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 5 | 59.1 | 46-72 | 1.22% |
| 6 | Brentford | 4 | 6 | 56.8 | 44-69 | 0.55% |
| 7 | Manchester United | 13 | 7 | 56.6 | 44-69 | 0.47% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 16 | 8 | 52.5 | 40-65 | 0.11% |
| 9 | Leeds United | 7 | 9 | 50.9 | 38-64 | 0.10% |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 11 | 10 | 50.5 | 38-63 | 0.07% |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 11 | 50.0 | 38-62 | 0.06% |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 10 | 13 | 47.6 | 34-61 | 0.02% |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 12 | 12 | 47.9 | 36-60 | 0.01% |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 14 | 46.3 | 33-59 | 0.01% |
| 15 | AFC Bournemouth | 18 | 15 | 45.9 | 33-58 | 0.01% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 15 | 16 | 45.8 | 34-58 | 0.01% |
| 17 | Fulham | 20 | 17 | 42.5 | 30-55 | 0.00% |
| 18 | Hull City | 8 | 18 | 40.9 | 28-53 | 0.00% |
| 19 | Coventry City | 14 | 19 | 38.0 | 26-50 | 0.00% |
| 20 | Sunderland | 17 | 20 | 37.1 | 25-49 | 0.00% |
THE LIVE RACE
Clubs with the most at stake
These are the highest current probabilities in this race. Club pages connect each number to projected points, remaining fixtures and verified transfers.
Verified evidence
Completed results, official transfers and confirmed availability can change the baseline.
Rumours and odds
Unconfirmed reports and bookmaker prices are kept outside the core sporting model.
Ranges, not certainty
Projected points include a 90% interval because many credible season paths remain.
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