Path frequency
A 25% probability means that outcome occurred in roughly one quarter of the published season paths.
Who will win the Premier League?
Arsenal are the current model favourites to win the 2026/27 Premier League, with a 48.57% title probability from 100,000 season paths. They project to 73.6 points; the estimate is not a guarantee.
MODEL LEADERArsenal
TITLE CHANCE48.57%
PROJECTED POINTS73.6
SEASON PATHS100,000
THE DIRECT ANSWER
Premier League title probabilities
Arsenal are the current model favourites to win the 2026/27 Premier League, with a 48.57% title probability from 100,000 season paths. They project to 73.6 points; the estimate is not a guarantee.
| Probability rank | Club | Current | Predicted | Projected points | 90% points range | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 1 | 73.6 | 60-87 | 48.57% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 69.1 | 55-83 | 23.86% |
| 3 | Chelsea | 7 | 3 | 64.1 | 49-79 | 11.43% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 4 | 59.9 | 46-74 | 4.14% |
| 5 | Manchester United | 16 | 5 | 58.6 | 44-73 | 3.31% |
| 6 | Brentford | 6 | 6 | 57.1 | 43-71 | 1.86% |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4 | 7 | 55.2 | 41-69 | 1.58% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 18 | 8 | 55.0 | 41-69 | 1.34% |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 11 | 9 | 54.1 | 40-68 | 1.15% |
| 10 | Leeds United | 9 | 10 | 51.8 | 37-66 | 0.85% |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 17 | 14 | 49.8 | 35-65 | 0.42% |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth | 12 | 11 | 51.4 | 38-65 | 0.39% |
| 13 | Everton | 3 | 12 | 50.2 | 36-64 | 0.32% |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 13 | 49.9 | 36-63 | 0.28% |
| 15 | Ipswich Town | 8 | 16 | 46.9 | 31-63 | 0.22% |
| 16 | Fulham | 14 | 15 | 47.0 | 33-61 | 0.19% |
| 17 | Hull City | 2 | 17 | 42.5 | 28-57 | 0.05% |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 18 | 40.4 | 28-53 | 0.01% |
| 19 | Sunderland | 15 | 19 | 38.8 | 26-52 | 0.01% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 19 | 20 | 32.2 | 19-45 | 0.00% |
THE LIVE RACE
Clubs with the most at stake
These are the highest current probabilities in this race. Club pages connect each number to projected points, remaining fixtures and verified transfers.
Verified evidence
Completed results, official transfers and confirmed availability can change the baseline.
Rumours and odds
Unconfirmed reports and bookmaker prices are kept outside the core sporting model.
Ranges, not certainty
Projected points include a 90% interval because many credible season paths remain.