Aston Villa 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Aston Villa currently project to finish 8th on 52.5 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
AVL
CURRENT MEAN FINISH8th
PROJECTED POINTS52.5
90% RANGE40 to 65
durable
41 points across the final 25 league matches, with 89% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
-0.024 strength signal
12 arrivals and 31 departures are tracked. 18 carry a first-team model weight.
14th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled balanced after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Aston Villa match probabilities
H 43%D 25%A 32%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 33%D 25%A 42%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 55%D 24%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 50%D 25%A 24%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 64%D 21%A 15%
Modal score 2-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Aston Villa transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Aston Villa → Arsenal
model assessedSouthampton → Aston Villa
model assessedParis Saint-Germain → Aston Villa
model assessedChelsea → Aston Villa
model assessedSC Freiburg → Aston Villa
model assessedWolverhampton Wanderers → Aston Villa
model assessedParma → Aston Villa
model assessedAtletico Madrid → Aston Villa
model assessedWest Ham United → Aston Villa
model assessedBayern Munich → Aston Villa
model assessedLASK → Aston Villa
ledger onlyCambridge United → Aston Villa
ledger onlyAston Villa → Al Hilal
model assessedAston Villa → Chelsea
model assessedAston Villa → Paris Saint-Germain
model assessedAston Villa → Chelsea
model assessedAVL PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Aston Villa model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Aston Villa.
result
Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Dortmund: eleven late finals and forecast impact
Dortmund top eight: 50.98% to 25.21%. Eleven new finals plus a correction for nine omitted 17 September Europa League scores update three matched forecasts.
result
Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
Villa's first league win moves them from 12th to ninth, adds 4.1 projected points and raises their top-six probability by 12.92 percentage points.
result
Hull 0-0 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
Hull remain unbeaten, but the draw lifts their relegation probability by 2.83 percentage points and moves their mean projected finish from 16th to 19th.
result
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win applied to the title race and Aston Villa's projected finish.
confirmed transfer
Ollie Watkins joins Al Hilal: confirmed Aston Villa impact
The confirmed departure applied to Aston Villa's projected points and top-six probability.
confirmed transfer
Emiliano Martinez joins Chelsea: confirmed model impact
The confirmed goalkeeper transfer applied to Chelsea and Aston Villa's Premier League forecasts.
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