Liverpool 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Liverpool currently project to finish 4th on 59.9 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
LIV
CURRENT MEAN FINISH4th
PROJECTED POINTS59.9
90% RANGE47 to 72
durable
39 points across the final 25 league matches, with 82% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.048 strength signal
5 arrivals and 17 departures are tracked. 9 carry a first-team model weight.
19th hardest
Remaining schedule index 99, labelled favourable after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Liverpool match probabilities
H 41%D 26%A 32%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 52%D 25%A 23%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 37%D 27%A 35%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 35%D 27%A 39%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 47%D 26%A 27%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Liverpool transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Paris Saint-Germain → Liverpool
model assessedFC Barcelona → Liverpool
model assessedRennes → Liverpool
model assessedOsasuna → Liverpool
model assessedAustria Wien → Liverpool
ledger onlyLiverpool → Valencia
model assessedLiverpool → TSV Hartberg
ledger onlyLiverpool → West Bromwich Albion
ledger onlyLiverpool → Bolton Wanderers
ledger onlyLiverpool → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedLiverpool → Real Madrid
model assessedLiverpool → Middlesbrough
ledger onlyLiverpool → Trabzonspor
model assessedLiverpool → Released
ledger onlyLiverpool → Released
ledger onlyLiverpool → Released
ledger onlyLIV PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Liverpool model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Liverpool.
model
Official Champions League draw: corrected forecast and 14 October results
All 144 official fixtures replace provisional opponents. AEK's top-eight chance changes from 48.56% to 9.73%; separate controls isolate Liverpool's and Feyenoord's wins.
result
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City: Premier League model impact
Manchester City's title probability rises from 47.23% to 68.68% after the verified 3-0 away win, while Liverpool's top-four probability falls to 37.32%.
result
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool: Premier League model impact
Liverpool's away win adds 2.5 projected points and raises their top-four probability by 11.82 percentage points.
result
Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool: Premier League model impact
Isak's early double lifts Liverpool's title probability to 8.30% and raises Ipswich's relegation risk to 32.73%.
confirmed transfer
Bradley Barcola joins Liverpool: confirmed model impact
The completed signing applied to Liverpool's projected points, title and top-four probabilities.
result
Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest: Premier League model impact
The completed draw applied to Liverpool's top-four outlook and Nottingham Forest's survival probability.
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