Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 43.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE59.1 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.4%
9.1%
7.8%
7.5%
7.0%
Chelsea 1.60 · Liverpool 1.31
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
39.0% to 50.1%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
5 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Liverpool.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.08 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.005 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.053 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.055 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs Liverpool?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 43.4%. The draw is 26.3%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 12.4%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.5% probability.
When is Chelsea vs Liverpool?
Chelsea vs Liverpool is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.
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