Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 47.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.2%
9.4%
7.0%
7.0%
6.9%
Chelsea 1.82 · Liverpool 1.34
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
41.8% to 57.0%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
3 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Liverpool.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.08 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.005 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.041 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.062 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs Liverpool?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 47.8%. The draw is 24.6%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 11.2%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 62.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 61.2% probability.
When is Chelsea vs Liverpool?
Chelsea vs Liverpool is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.