Official evidence comes first
Competition, league and club sources are the primary evidence for results, schedules, transfers and availability. Reputable reporters help discover a development, but a report alone does not change the core forecast.
Editorial standards
The Football Simulator is published by an independent probability desk. These rules define what can change the model, how uncertainty is communicated and how mistakes are corrected.
CORE MODELHORIZON 6.2
PUBLISHED PATHS100,000
CORE TRANSFER RULEOFFICIAL ONLY
MARKET INPUTSEPARATE
HOW WE PUBLISH
Six rules behind every forecast
The visible claim, structured data and source state must agree. Dates are changed only when the underlying evidence or model output materially changes.
Forecasts and markets stay separate
Bookmaker prices never alter the sporting forecast. They are compared only after the model probability has been published, and stale prices or unverified each-way terms are not presented as current value.
Counterfactual means not confirmed
A public hypothetical must meet a high evidence threshold, carry a visible disclaimer, state its assumptions and remain outside the live model. It is converted or withdrawn when authoritative evidence resolves the move.
Every number has a model state
Published outputs state the model version, simulation count, update time and evidence date. The current Premier League baseline is HORIZON 6.2, last updated 28/08/2026, 23:31:33.
Correct the exact claim
If a published figure, attribution or factual claim is wrong, the source page is corrected promptly. A newly published social post is edited where supported or removed and republished through the protected publishing workflow.
Probability is not certainty
Football models compress imperfect evidence into estimates. Line-ups, injuries, tactics, officiating, weather and randomness can produce outcomes far from the modal path. No forecast is a guarantee or personal betting advice.
Publisher: The Football Simulator. Contact: support@thefootballsimulator.com. Corrections should identify the page, claim and supporting source.
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