MARKET
Winner
Arsenal6/4Market 40.0% · Model 48.6%
Manchester City10/3Market 23.1% · Model 23.9%
Liverpool6/1Market 14.3% · Model 4.1%
Manchester United9/1Market 10.0% · Model 3.3%
Premier League odds with the bookmaker margin taken out
The price board separates market context from the independent forecast. Displayed match odds were refreshed 12 August 2026 at 06:42 and independently verified 12 August 2026 at 06:42. Live value decisions remain gated to current licensed-provider quotes.
FIXTURES PRICED10
MARKET1X2
MODEL RUNS100,000
EXECUTION STATUSSNAPSHOT
GAMEWEEK ONE
Market price versus model probability
Odds are fractional best-price comparisons. Market probabilities are normalized across home, draw and away to remove the displayed overround.
| Fixture | Home odds | Draw odds | Away odds | Market H/D/A | Model H/D/A | Largest gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Coventry | 2/11 | 13/2 | 16/1 | 81.5% / 12.8% / 5.7% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Arsenal +18.5pp |
| Hull v Man Utd | 7/1 | 19/5 | 2/5 | 11.9% / 19.9% / 68.2% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Hull +88.1pp |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 23/20 | 5/2 | 5/2 | 44.9% / 27.6% / 27.6% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Everton +55.1pp |
| Ipswich v Sunderland | 7/4 | 12/5 | 8/5 | 34.9% / 28.2% / 36.9% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Ipswich +65.1pp |
| Nott'm Forest v Leeds | 5/4 | 5/2 | 11/5 | 42.6% / 27.4% / 30.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% / 100.0% | Leeds +70.0pp |
| Brentford v Tottenham | 29/20 | 13/5 | 15/8 | 39.5% / 26.9% / 33.6% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Brentford +60.5pp |
| Brighton v Aston Villa | 5/4 | 11/4 | 2/1 | 42.6% / 25.5% / 31.9% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Brighton +57.4pp |
| Man City v Bournemouth | 5/11 | 4/1 | 11/2 | 66.0% / 19.2% / 14.8% | 100.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% | Man City +34.0pp |
| Newcastle v Liverpool | 23/10 | 29/10 | 23/20 | 29.6% / 25.0% / 45.4% | 0.0% / 100.0% / 0.0% | Draw +75.0pp |
| Fulham v Chelsea | 23/10 | 14/5 | 23/20 | 29.4% / 25.5% / 45.1% | 0.0% / 0.0% / 100.0% | Chelsea +54.9pp |
Source: Oddschecker Premier League comparison ↗. Prices can move and must be rechecked before any decision.
Responsible gambling policy →LEADING OUTRIGHT PRICES
Winner, relegation, top-four and goalscorer markets
These are the leading selections visible in the same dated market capture. They are not complete market books, so raw implied probability is shown without pretending that a full-market margin has been removed. The dedicated Golden Boot board now publishes independent player win and top-four probabilities.
MARKET
Relegation
Hull City5/19Market 79.2% · Model 34.5%
Ipswich Town17/20Market 54.1% · Model 20.8%
Coventry City17/20Market 54.1% · Model 79.9%
Sunderland4/1Market 20.0% · Model 50.6%
MARKET
Top four
Arsenal1/8Market 88.9% · Model 89.2%
Manchester City2/7Market 77.8% · Model 75.6%
Liverpool8/13Market 61.9% · Model 34.5%
Manchester United5/6Market 54.6% · Model 30.0%
MARKET
Top goalscorer
Erling Haaland8/11Market 57.9% · full player model now available
Alexander Isak9/1Market 10.0% · full player model now available
Igor Thiago14/1Market 6.7% · full player model now available
João Pedro14/1Market 6.7% · full player model now available
Top goalscorer prices are compared separately because each-way terms can differ from the best win-only quote.
Open Golden Boot value board →Independent forecast
Bookmaker prices never train or alter the core match and season probabilities.
Margin-aware comparison
Raw implied probabilities are normalized within each 1X2 market before comparison.
Freshness gate
The interactive value engine will not grade a stale quote as an executable edge.
Lineup repricing
The live adapter can reprice supported markets when both confirmed starting elevens arrive.