Path frequency
A 25% probability means that outcome occurred in roughly one quarter of the published season paths.
Premier League top-four predictions
Arsenal have the highest current top-four probability at 89.23% from 100,000 season paths. The table below shows every club's qualification chance and projected points.
MODEL LEADERArsenal
TOP-FOUR CHANCE89.23%
PROJECTED POINTS73.6
SEASON PATHS100,000
THE DIRECT ANSWER
Every club's top-four probability
Arsenal have the highest current top-four probability at 89.23% from 100,000 season paths. The table below shows every club's qualification chance and projected points.
| Probability rank | Club | Current | Predicted | Projected points | 90% points range | Top-four chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 1 | 73.6 | 60-87 | 89.23% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 69.1 | 55-83 | 75.59% |
| 3 | Chelsea | 7 | 3 | 64.1 | 49-79 | 53.50% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 4 | 59.9 | 46-74 | 34.45% |
| 5 | Manchester United | 16 | 5 | 58.6 | 44-73 | 29.96% |
| 6 | Brentford | 6 | 6 | 57.1 | 43-71 | 22.33% |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4 | 7 | 55.2 | 41-69 | 17.28% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 18 | 8 | 55.0 | 41-69 | 16.42% |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 11 | 9 | 54.1 | 40-68 | 14.56% |
| 10 | Leeds United | 9 | 10 | 51.8 | 37-66 | 9.58% |
| 11 | AFC Bournemouth | 12 | 11 | 51.4 | 38-65 | 8.49% |
| 12 | Tottenham Hotspur | 17 | 14 | 49.8 | 35-65 | 7.03% |
| 13 | Everton | 3 | 12 | 50.2 | 36-64 | 6.21% |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 13 | 49.9 | 36-63 | 5.71% |
| 15 | Ipswich Town | 8 | 16 | 46.9 | 31-63 | 4.67% |
| 16 | Fulham | 14 | 15 | 47.0 | 33-61 | 3.24% |
| 17 | Hull City | 2 | 17 | 42.5 | 28-57 | 1.14% |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 18 | 40.4 | 28-53 | 0.33% |
| 19 | Sunderland | 15 | 19 | 38.8 | 26-52 | 0.25% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 19 | 20 | 32.2 | 19-45 | 0.02% |
THE LIVE RACE
Clubs with the most at stake
These are the highest current probabilities in this race. Club pages connect each number to projected points, remaining fixtures and verified transfers.
Verified evidence
Completed results, official transfers and confirmed availability can change the baseline.
Rumours and odds
Unconfirmed reports and bookmaker prices are kept outside the core sporting model.
Ranges, not certainty
Projected points include a 90% interval because many credible season paths remain.