Path frequency
A 25% probability means that outcome occurred in roughly one quarter of the published season paths.
Premier League top-four predictions
Manchester City have the highest current top-four probability at 98.62% from 100,000 season paths. The table below shows every club's qualification chance and projected points.
MODEL LEADERMan City
TOP-FOUR CHANCE98.62%
PROJECTED POINTS79.5
SEASON PATHS100,000
THE DIRECT ANSWER
Every club's top-four probability
Manchester City have the highest current top-four probability at 98.62% from 100,000 season paths. The table below shows every club's qualification chance and projected points.
| Probability rank | Club | Current | Predicted | Projected points | 90% points range | Top-four chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 79.5 | 67-92 | 98.62% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 73.3 | 61-85 | 92.80% |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 3 | 60.6 | 48-73 | 43.61% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 59.9 | 48-72 | 38.28% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 5 | 59.1 | 46-72 | 34.52% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 13 | 7 | 56.6 | 44-69 | 24.13% |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 6 | 56.8 | 44-69 | 23.94% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 16 | 8 | 52.5 | 40-65 | 10.10% |
| 9 | Leeds United | 7 | 9 | 50.9 | 38-64 | 7.42% |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 11 | 10 | 50.5 | 38-63 | 6.53% |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 11 | 50.0 | 38-62 | 5.56% |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 10 | 13 | 47.6 | 34-61 | 3.90% |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 12 | 12 | 47.9 | 36-60 | 2.96% |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 14 | 46.3 | 33-59 | 2.38% |
| 15 | AFC Bournemouth | 18 | 15 | 45.9 | 33-58 | 2.05% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 15 | 16 | 45.8 | 34-58 | 1.82% |
| 17 | Fulham | 20 | 17 | 42.5 | 30-55 | 0.68% |
| 18 | Hull City | 8 | 18 | 40.9 | 28-53 | 0.50% |
| 19 | Coventry City | 14 | 19 | 38.0 | 26-50 | 0.12% |
| 20 | Sunderland | 17 | 20 | 37.1 | 25-49 | 0.07% |
THE LIVE RACE
Clubs with the most at stake
These are the highest current probabilities in this race. Club pages connect each number to projected points, remaining fixtures and verified transfers.
Verified evidence
Completed results, official transfers and confirmed availability can change the baseline.
Rumours and odds
Unconfirmed reports and bookmaker prices are kept outside the core sporting model.
Ranges, not certainty
Projected points include a 90% interval because many credible season paths remain.
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