Tottenham Hotspur 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Tottenham Hotspur currently project to finish 14th on 46.2 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
TOT
CURRENT MEAN FINISH14th
PROJECTED POINTS46.2
90% RANGE33 to 59
regression-adjusted
23 points across the final 25 league matches, with 66% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.095 strength signal
11 arrivals and 25 departures are tracked. 21 carry a first-team model weight.
15th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled balanced after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Tottenham match probabilities
H 59%D 22%A 18%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 54%D 23%A 22%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 49%D 24%A 27%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 45%D 26%A 29%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 52%D 24%A 24%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Tottenham transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Aston Villa → Tottenham Hotspur
ledger onlyAFC Bournemouth → Tottenham Hotspur
ledger onlyTottenham Hotspur → Brighton & Hove Albion
model assessedBrighton & Hove Albion → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedChelsea → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedChelsea → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedLiverpool → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedManchester City → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedManchester City → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedTottenham Hotspur → Manchester United
model assessedNewcastle United → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedTottenham Hotspur → Sunderland
model assessedWest Ham United → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedBurnley → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedTottenham Hotspur → Juventus
model assessedTottenham Hotspur → Eintracht Frankfurt
ledger onlyTOT PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Tottenham model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Tottenham Hotspur.
result
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham: Premier League model impact
The 1-1 draw cuts Manchester United's top-four probability from 26.86% to 20.31%, while Tottenham's relegation probability falls from 23.26% to 15.93%.
result
Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa: Premier League model impact
Villa's first league win moves them from 12th to ninth, adds 4.1 projected points and raises their top-six probability by 12.92 percentage points.
availability
Richarlison omitted: Tottenham model impact
The confirmed first-half squad omission cuts Tottenham by 1.0 projected point and raises relegation probability by 3.20 percentage points.
confirmed transfer
Tosin and Mudryk join Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The isolated 100,000-path effect of Tottenham's confirmed double move, with conservative role and minutes assumptions.
confirmed transfer
Omar Marmoush joins Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Tottenham's points and major season outcomes.
confirmed transfer
Savio signs for Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed winger arrival applied to Tottenham's points and Europe probabilities.
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