-6.55 percentage points
The home draw reduces Manchester United's Champions League qualification chance.
Late Spurs equaliser narrows Manchester United's top-four route
The verified final score is locked into the current table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the result's effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.
FINAL SCOREMan Utd 1-1 Tottenham
UNITED TOP FOUR26.86% → 20.31%
UNITED POINTS58.2 → 56.4
SPURS RELEGATION23.26% → 15.93%
58.2 → 56.4
The forecast puts United seventh, 1.8 projected points below the unresolved-fixture baseline.
23.26% → 15.93%
A difficult away point cuts Tottenham's relegation probability by 7.33 percentage points.
44.4 → 46.4
Tottenham rise to 14th in predicted final standings despite sitting 18th now.
CURRENT TABLE
Completed results and predicted final standings
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Verified final, isolated result effect
EVIDENCE
Independent full-time reporting
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