Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham: the race shifts
Sixty-three independently corroborated finals are locked into matched 100,000-path forecasts across nine active competitions. The latest Premier League result cuts Chelsea's top-four chance and lifts Tottenham's top-six outlook. Manchester City remain first in the current table; Arsenal lead only the model's predicted final table.
CHELSEA 0-2 TOTTENHAMVerified final
CHELSEA TOP FOUR46.18% → 24.52%
SPURS TOP SIX9.76% → 23.49%
MATCHED PATHS100,000
Chelsea fall; Tottenham climb in the forecast
Chelsea's 0-2 home defeat moves their modeled top-four chance from 46.18% to 24.52% and projected points from 62.8 to 58.0. Tottenham's top-six chance rises from 9.76% to 23.49%, with projected points moving from 48.5 to 52.8.
Current standings and predicted final standings remain separate: Manchester City are still first in the current table on goal difference, with Arsenal second. Arsenal lead the predicted final table after all four verified Premier League finals.
RC Lens 2-1 Paris FC: late Ligue 1 comeback
RC Lens' comeback win raises their modeled top-four probability from 42.77% to 49.39% and their top-six probability from 67.28% to 73.55%. Projected points rise from 57.0 to 58.2. This incremental comparison changes only that late final while holding every earlier result and model input fixed.
SIXTY-THREE VERIFIED FINALS
Saturday results added
Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City · Arsenal 2-0 Everton · Coventry City 0-1 Fulham · Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham, plus completed fixtures in the Championship, League One, League Two, National League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1.
Largest forecast movements
| Club | Outcome | Probability | Projected points | Predicted place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChelseaPremier League | Top four | 46.18% → 24.52% | 62.8 → 58.0 | 5 → 6 |
| TottenhamPremier League | Top six | 9.76% → 23.49% | 48.5 → 52.8 | 12 → 9 |
| SouthamptonChampionship | Automatic promotion | 37.33% → 49.08% | 77.9 → 79.7 | 3 → 1 |
| Burton AlbionLeague One | Relegation | 40.48% → 32.02% | 52.7 → 54.2 | 22 → 19 |
| Accrington StanleyLeague Two | Relegation | 32.68% → 21.59% | 48.3 → 50.6 | 22 → 22 |
| Villarreal CFLa Liga | Top four | 21.63% → 28.20% | 59.6 → 61.2 | 5 → 5 |
| Werder BremenBundesliga | Relegation | 34.84% → 23.82% | 37.2 → 39.3 | 14 → 12 |
| RC LensLigue 1 | Top four | 42.77% → 49.39% | 57.0 → 58.2 | 4 → 4 |
Current and predicted tables
Each affected competition page combines current standings calculated from completed results with the matched 100,000-path predicted final standings.
Premier League → · Championship → · League One → · League Two → · La Liga →
Final-only verification
- Sixty-three final scores were accepted only after two independent domains corroborated each result, with an official league or club source used for every fixture.
- Before and after runs use identical deterministic seeds, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedules and model settings; only the relevant completed scores change.
- Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
- No unconfirmed transfer report changes a core input.
Only matches confirmed as final by the cut-off are included. Barrow v Forest Green was abandoned and Toulouse v Troyes moved to Sunday. The late Atlético v Deportivo, Lazio v Parma, Lens v Paris FC and Kidderminster v Worthing finals were added only after full-time confirmation. HORIZON 6.2 for the Premier League, SCORER 1.1 for the scorer market and HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 for the other competitions · verified 25 October 2026. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
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