Published 2026/27 schedule captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL Championship

24 clubs · 46 matches each · two automatic promotion places · six-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERSouthampton28.3% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES55225 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.42 : 1.14Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Championship probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Southampton

28.3%TITLE

28.3% title probability, 46.8% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.1 expected pts65–93 range
02

Millwall

25.3%TITLE

25.3% title probability, 43.7% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

78.5 expected pts65–92 range
03

West Ham United

12.9%TITLE

12.9% title probability, 26.2% for automatic and 0.2% danger risk.

74.6 expected pts61–88 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 3

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Fri 28 Aug, 20:00FT · R3
Wrexham1–2Birmingham City

HOME47%fair 2.12

DRAW26%fair 3.90

AWAY27%fair 3.69

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Derby CountyvSwansea City

HOME45%fair 2.20

DRAW26%fair 3.81

AWAY28%fair 3.53

xG 1.45–1.09score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
MiddlesbroughvWest Bromwich Albion

HOME50%fair 2.01

DRAW25%fair 3.93

AWAY25%fair 4.05

xG 1.55–1.01score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Wolverhampton WanderersvStoke City

HOME57%fair 1.75

DRAW24%fair 4.17

AWAY19%fair 5.26

xG 1.69–0.86score 1–0
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Blackburn RoversvQueens Park Rangers

HOME49%fair 2.04

DRAW26%fair 3.87

AWAY25%fair 3.99

xG 1.51–1.00score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Bolton WanderersvLincoln City

HOME36%fair 2.74

DRAW27%fair 3.75

AWAY37%fair 2.71

xG 1.27–1.28score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL Championship predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL Championship simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Southampton is the forecast leader on 79.1 projected points with a 28.3% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Southampton79.1 pts28.3%
  2. 2Millwall78.5 pts25.3%
  3. 3West Ham United74.6 pts12.9%
  4. 4Middlesbrough73.3 pts10.1%
  5. 5Wrexham69.6 pts4.7%
How does the EFL Championship simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL Championship in 2026/27?

Southampton currently leads with a 28.3% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.