Published 2026/27 schedule and 119 verified results through all four fixtures on 14 October captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL Championship

24 clubs · 46 matches each · two automatic promotion places · six-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERWest Ham United26.0% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES552119 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.42 : 1.14Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKWed 14 Oct, 22:14Checking the strongest available live result sources.
VERIFIED POINTS ADJUSTMENT

Southampton: -4 points. Four-point EFL deduction. The adjustment is applied to both current and predicted final standings.

BASELINE FORECAST

Championship probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

West Ham United

26.0%TITLE

26.0% title probability, 45.3% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.1 expected pts66–92 range
02

Southampton

24.9%TITLE

24.9% title probability, 44.3% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79 expected pts66–92 range
03

Middlesbrough

21.6%TITLE

21.6% title probability, 39.9% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

78.6 expected pts66–91 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 11

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
BurnleyvWolverhampton Wanderers

HOME42%fair 2.35

DRAW27%fair 3.73

AWAY31%fair 3.26

xG 1.36–1.12score 1–1
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
MiddlesbroughvCardiff City

HOME54%fair 1.85

DRAW24%fair 4.19

AWAY22%fair 4.55

xG 1.71–1.00score 1–0
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
MillwallvLincoln City

HOME51%fair 1.98

DRAW26%fair 3.88

AWAY24%fair 4.21

xG 1.53–0.96score 1–0
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
WatfordvCharlton Athletic

HOME39%fair 2.57

DRAW27%fair 3.70

AWAY34%fair 2.93

xG 1.29–1.19score 1–1
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
Birmingham CityvQueens Park Rangers

HOME57%fair 1.76

DRAW24%fair 4.25

AWAY20%fair 5.11

xG 1.74–0.91score 1–0
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR11
Bristol CityvSheffield United

HOME40%fair 2.50

DRAW27%fair 3.77

AWAY33%fair 2.99

xG 1.35–1.21score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL Championship predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL Championship simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. West Ham United is the forecast leader on 79.1 projected points with a 26.0% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1West Ham United79.1 pts26.0%
  2. 2Southampton79.0 pts24.9%
  3. 3Middlesbrough78.6 pts21.6%
  4. 4Millwall73.9 pts8.1%
  5. 5Swansea City73.9 pts8.1%
  6. 6Birmingham City70.7 pts3.9%
  7. 7Wrexham68.8 pts2.3%
  8. 8West Bromwich Albion67.4 pts1.6%
  9. 9Wolverhampton Wanderers66.3 pts1.3%
  10. 10Norwich City65.3 pts0.9%
  11. 11Lincoln City62.8 pts0.3%
  12. 12Sheffield United62.0 pts0.4%
  13. 13Portsmouth60.1 pts0.2%
  14. 14Blackburn Rovers60.1 pts0.1%
  15. 15Derby County58.7 pts0.1%
  16. 16Burnley58.6 pts0.1%
  17. 17Bristol City57.3 pts0.1%
  18. 18Bolton Wanderers56.7 pts0.0%
  19. 19Queens Park Rangers55.8 pts0.0%
  20. 20Cardiff City55.6 pts0.0%
  21. 21Charlton Athletic54.4 pts0.0%
  22. 22Stoke City52.3 pts0.0%
  23. 23Watford47.8 pts0.0%
  24. 24Preston North End43.0 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest EFL Championship model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the EFL Championship simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL Championship in 2026/27?

West Ham United currently leads with a 26.0% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.