VERIFIED RESULTS · CHAMPIONSHIP

Birmingham's away win reshapes the play-off race

Derby 1-2 Birmingham, Bolton 1-0 Cardiff and West Brom 1-1 QPR are locked into the current table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts measure the impact of the three completed early fixtures.

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DERBY v BIRMINGHAM1-2

BOLTON v CARDIFF1-0

WEST BROM v QPR1-1

BIRMINGHAM POSITION9th → 7th

BIRMINGHAM PLAY-OFFS

36.31% → 42.97%

The away win raises Birmingham’s play-off probability by 6.66 percentage points.

BIRMINGHAM PROJECTED POINTS

66.5 → 68.3

Birmingham add 1.8 mean projected points and move from ninth to seventh.

BOLTON RELEGATION

28.35% → 22.09%

The late home win cuts Bolton’s relegation probability by 6.26 percentage points.

CARDIFF RELEGATION

17.31% → 21.25%

Cardiff’s relegation probability rises by 3.94 percentage points after the 90th-minute defeat.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, three completed results

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats the three early Championship fixtures completed on 12 September as unresolved.100,000 paths · seed 260912

ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks all three verified final scores before simulating the remaining Championship schedule.100,000 paths · seed 260912

ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use seed 260912 and 100,000 paths, so the movement isolates the completed results rather than simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260912

ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The published play-off band covers positions three through eight under the confirmed six-team 2026/27 format.100,000 paths · seed 260912

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