VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONSHIP

Southampton's derby win lifts their promotion route

The verified final score enters the recorded-results standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate this result's effect on the predicted final table.

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FINAL SCORESouthampton 1-0 Portsmouth

SAINTS AUTOMATIC34.52% → 38.88%

SAINTS POINTS76.3 → 77.3

PORTSMOUTH RELEGATION8.48% → 9.91%

AUTOMATIC-PROMOTION SWING

+4.35 percentage points

The derby win moves Southampton from third to second in predicted final standings.

SOUTHAMPTON PROJECTED POINTS

76.3 → 77.3

The verified result adds exactly one projected point with the four-point deduction still applied.

PORTSMOUTH PRESSURE

8.47% → 9.91%

Portsmouth fall from 14th to 16th in predicted final standings.

RECORDED TABLE

Southampton 10th · Portsmouth 20th

The live table reflects nine Saints matches and eight Portsmouth matches.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Southampton versus Portsmouth unresolved; the after run locks the official 1-0 final.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261011

ASSUMPTION 2Both runs use seed 20261011 and 100,000 matched paths. Every other recorded result, rating and deduction is unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261011

ASSUMPTION 3Southampton's four-point EFL deduction remains applied in both runs. The current table uses completed results; final positions remain model estimates.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261011

EVIDENCE

Official club report and independent match coverage

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