Published 2026/27 schedule and verified results through Levante 3-3 Sevilla on 12 October captured380 fixtures · 100,000 paths
SPAIN · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

La Liga

20 clubs · 38 matches each · European qualification and three relegation places

FORECAST LEADERFC Barcelona71.3% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES38078 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE85%17/20 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,900 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.50 : 1.13Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKMon 12 Oct, 23:08Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

La Liga probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

FC Barcelona

71.3%TITLE

71.3% title probability, 99.9% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

86.6 expected pts76–97 range
02

Real Madrid

25.1%TITLE

25.1% title probability, 99.0% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

80.5 expected pts70–91 range
03

Atlético de Madrid

2.5%TITLE

2.5% title probability, 83.3% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

70.8 expected pts60–82 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 8

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Fri 9 Oct, 20:00FT · R8
Málaga CF1–1RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

HOME49%fair 2.06

DRAW25%fair 3.96

AWAY26%fair 3.83

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Rayo VallecanovAthletic Club

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Sat 10 Oct, 15:15FT · R8
Deportivo Alavés1–2Atlético de Madrid

HOME28%fair 3.57

DRAW26%fair 3.84

AWAY46%fair 2.18

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 10 Oct, 17:30FT · R8
FC Barcelona3–0Getafe CF

HOME72%fair 1.38

DRAW18%fair 5.69

AWAY10%fair 9.99

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 10 Oct, 20:00FT · R8
Real Madrid1–0Villarreal CF

HOME59%fair 1.69

DRAW21%fair 4.65

AWAY19%fair 5.19

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sun 11 Oct, 13:00FT · R8
Elche CF0–0Celta

HOME40%fair 2.50

DRAW26%fair 3.81

AWAY34%fair 2.97

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

380 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

La Liga predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current La Liga simulator resolves 380 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. FC Barcelona is the forecast leader on 86.6 projected points with a 71.3% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1FC Barcelona86.6 pts71.3%
  2. 2Real Madrid80.5 pts25.1%
  3. 3Atlético de Madrid70.8 pts2.5%
  4. 4Real Betis67.8 pts1.1%
  5. 5Villarreal CF60.7 pts0.1%
  6. 6Athletic Club54.6 pts0.0%
  7. 7Real Sociedad53.6 pts0.0%
  8. 8Rayo Vallecano51.6 pts0.0%
  9. 9Sevilla FC51.0 pts0.0%
  10. 10Celta48.8 pts0.0%
  11. 11Valencia CF48.7 pts0.0%
  12. 12Getafe CF46.4 pts0.0%
  13. 13Deportivo Alavés45.8 pts0.0%
  14. 14RC Deportivo45.2 pts0.0%
  15. 15Elche CF43.4 pts0.0%
  16. 16RCD Espanyol de Barcelona43.0 pts0.0%
  17. 17Málaga CF42.2 pts0.0%
  18. 18CA Osasuna41.1 pts0.0%
  19. 19Levante UD33.7 pts0.0%
  20. 20R. Racing Club31.8 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest La Liga model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

result

Elche CF 2-3 Real Madrid: La Liga model impact

Real Madrid's stoppage-time winner adds 1.0 projected point and raises their title probability by 3.83 percentage points, while Elche's relegation probability rises by 3.45 points.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the La Liga simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the La Liga in 2026/27?

FC Barcelona currently leads with a 71.3% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.