VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Atlético win the derby and tighten the title race

The verified 2-1 home win is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on Atlético and Real Madrid.

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FINAL SCOREAtlético 2-1 Real Madrid

ATLÉTICO TOP FOUR71.24% → 78.11%

ATLÉTICO POINTS67.8 → 69.4

REAL TITLE29.41% → 24.05%

ATLÉTICO TOP-FOUR SWING

+6.88 percentage points

Atlético remain third in the predicted table but strengthen their Champions League position.

ATLÉTICO PROJECTED POINTS

67.8 → 69.4

The derby win adds 1.6 points to Atlético's mean season projection.

REAL MADRID TITLE CHANCE

29.41% → 24.05%

Real Madrid's title probability falls by 5.37 percentage points.

REAL MADRID PROJECTED POINTS

81.0 → 79.5

The away defeat removes 1.5 projected points while Real remain second.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Atlético de Madrid against Real Madrid unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-1 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260920 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed La Liga match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates the Madrid derby result.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920

EVIDENCE

Official competition result

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