Published 2026/27 schedule captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL League Two

24 clubs · 46 matches each · three automatic promotion places · four-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERBarnet37.6% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES55224 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.41 : 1.19Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

League Two probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Barnet

37.6%TITLE

37.6% title probability, 72.6% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

85.3 expected pts71–99 range
02

Chesterfield

24.3%TITLE

24.3% title probability, 60.2% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

82.4 expected pts69–96 range
03

York City

13.6%TITLE

13.6% title probability, 43.7% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.2 expected pts65–93 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 3

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
BarnetvCheltenham Town

HOME67%fair 1.49

DRAW19%fair 5.17

AWAY14%fair 7.37

xG 2.13–0.84score 2–0
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Port ValevCrewe Alexandra

HOME47%fair 2.15

DRAW26%fair 3.82

AWAY27%fair 3.67

xG 1.47–1.06score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Rotherham UnitedvChesterfield

HOME28%fair 3.53

DRAW25%fair 3.93

AWAY46%fair 2.16

xG 1.14–1.53score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Colchester UnitedvRochdale

HOME36%fair 2.82

DRAW27%fair 3.69

AWAY37%fair 2.68

xG 1.23–1.27score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Crawley TownvBristol Rovers

HOME25%fair 4.05

DRAW25%fair 4.05

AWAY51%fair 1.98

xG 1.06–1.63score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
GillinghamvNorthampton Town

HOME36%fair 2.77

DRAW28%fair 3.62

AWAY36%fair 2.75

xG 1.21–1.21score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL League Two predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL League Two simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Barnet is the forecast leader on 85.3 projected points with a 37.6% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Barnet85.3 pts37.6%
  2. 2Chesterfield82.4 pts24.3%
  3. 3York City79.2 pts13.6%
  4. 4Grimsby Town76.6 pts8.2%
  5. 5Bristol Rovers74.4 pts5.2%
How does the EFL League Two simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL League Two in 2026/27?

Barnet currently leads with a 37.6% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.