Published 2026/27 schedule, verified results through the 10 October afternoon kick-offs and September postponements captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL League Two

24 clubs · 46 matches each · three automatic promotion places · four-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERBarnet51.1% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES552114 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.41 : 1.19Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 10 Oct, 19:10Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

League Two probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Barnet

51.1%TITLE

51.1% title probability, 83.6% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

86.7 expected pts74–99 range
02

Chesterfield

15.7%TITLE

15.7% title probability, 54.5% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.8 expected pts67–92 range
03

Salford City

12.0%TITLE

12.0% title probability, 46.3% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

78.6 expected pts66–91 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 8

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Crawley TownvBarnet

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Bristol Rovers1–0Exeter City

HOME46%fair 2.16

DRAW26%fair 3.87

AWAY28%fair 3.60

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Cheltenham Town2–1Chesterfield

HOME21%fair 4.80

DRAW23%fair 4.34

AWAY56%fair 1.78

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Fleetwood Town1–2Rochdale

HOME32%fair 3.11

DRAW27%fair 3.77

AWAY41%fair 2.42

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Newport County2–1Grimsby Town

HOME26%fair 3.90

DRAW25%fair 4.03

AWAY50%fair 2.02

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Port ValevNorthampton Town

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL League Two predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL League Two simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Barnet is the forecast leader on 86.7 projected points with a 51.1% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Barnet86.7 pts51.1%
  2. 2Chesterfield79.8 pts15.7%
  3. 3Salford City78.6 pts12.0%
  4. 4York City78.0 pts11.4%
  5. 5Bristol Rovers73.8 pts3.8%
  6. 6Grimsby Town71.2 pts2.3%
  7. 7Rochdale70.5 pts1.8%
  8. 8Exeter City65.8 pts0.4%
  9. 9Crewe Alexandra65.3 pts0.4%
  10. 10Port Vale64.9 pts0.4%
  11. 11Colchester United64.0 pts0.3%
  12. 12Oldham Athletic63.7 pts0.2%
  13. 13Walsall62.0 pts0.1%
  14. 14Swindon Town61.1 pts0.1%
  15. 15Rotherham United59.1 pts0.0%
  16. 16Fleetwood Town58.9 pts0.0%
  17. 17Cheltenham Town55.4 pts0.0%
  18. 18Gillingham54.9 pts0.0%
  19. 19Newport County53.3 pts0.0%
  20. 20Northampton Town52.8 pts0.0%
  21. 21Shrewsbury Town48.1 pts0.0%
  22. 22Tranmere Rovers47.0 pts0.0%
  23. 23Accrington Stanley46.4 pts0.0%
  24. 24Crawley Town45.9 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest EFL League Two model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the EFL League Two simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL League Two in 2026/27?

Barnet currently leads with a 51.1% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.