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VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE TWO

Chesterfield climb to sixth after six-goal home win

The 4-2 win over Tranmere is locked into the live League Two table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the final score changes Chesterfield's promotion outlook and Tranmere's survival risk.

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FINAL SCOREChesterfield 4-2 Tranmere
CHESTERFIELD AUTOMATIC53.33% → 56.21%
LIVE TABLE11th → 6th
PROJECTED POINTS80.0 → 80.7
CHESTERFIELD PROMOTION SWING

+2.88 pts

Chesterfield rise from a 53.33% to a 56.21% chance of finishing in League Two's automatic-promotion places.

CHESTERFIELD LIVE TABLE

11th → 6th

The three points move Chesterfield five places to sixth in the completed-results table.

CHESTERFIELD TITLE

17.53% → 19.38%

The title probability rises by 1.85 percentage points while the mean final rank remains second.

TRANMERE RELEGATION

30.81% → 32.77%

Tranmere's relegation probability rises by 1.96 points and their projected total falls to 46.9.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Chesterfield versus Tranmere Rovers unresolved. The after run locks the verified 4-2 final score.100,000 paths · seed 261003
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 261003 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 261003
ASSUMPTION 3All other completed League Two results and team-strength inputs are held constant in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 261003
ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live League Two table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 261003
EVIDENCE

Official final score and live forecast

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