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VERIFIED RESULT · EFL LEAGUE TWO

Bristol Rovers go top and strengthen their automatic-promotion case

The 2-0 scoreline is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes both clubs' League Two outlooks.

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FINAL SCOREBristol Rovers 2-0 Colchester
ROVERS POINTS75.6 → 76.9
AUTOMATIC PROMOTION31.49% → 36.54%
COLCHESTER POINTS67.9 → 66.8
ROVERS POINTS SWING

+1.3 points

Bristol Rovers remain projected fourth, now on 76.9 mean points.

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

31.49% → 36.54%

The top-three probability rises by +5.05 percentage points.

LEAGUE TWO TITLE

8.85% → 10.89%

The title probability increases by +2.04 percentage points.

COLCHESTER

9th → 10th

Colchester fall to 66.8 projected points, with automatic promotion at 5.93%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Bristol Rovers v Colchester United as unresolved. Every other completed result and forecast input is identical.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks the verified 2-0 scoreline before simulating the remaining League Two schedule.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, so the movement isolates this result rather than random simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing in the top three. The play-off probability is the published probability of finishing fourth through seventh.100,000 paths · seed 260902
EVIDENCE

Official round-up, club report and final score

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