VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE TWO

Salford's win at Oldham strengthens their promotion case

The 4-1 away win is locked into the live League Two table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the final score changes Salford's promotion outlook and Oldham's projected finish.

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FINAL SCOREOldham 1-4 Salford

SALFORD AUTOMATIC PROMOTION25.82% → 32.76%

SALFORD TITLE5.65% → 7.96%

SALFORD POINTS74.5 → 76.3

SALFORD PROMOTION SWING

+6.94 pts

Salford rise from a 25.82% to a 32.76% chance of finishing in League Two's automatic-promotion places.

SALFORD PROJECTED POINTS

74.5 → 76.3

The away win adds 1.8 points to Salford's mean season projection and lifts their mean rank from sixth to fifth.

SALFORD TITLE

5.65% → 7.96%

The title probability rises by 2.32 percentage points.

OLDHAM PROJECTED POINTS

66.1 → 64.7

Oldham lose 1.4 projected points and move from eighth to ninth in the mean final table.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Oldham Athletic versus Salford City unresolved. The after run locks the verified 1-4 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260926 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 3The other completed League Two results on 26 September are held constant in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live League Two table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260926

EVIDENCE

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