VERIFIED RESULT · EFL LEAGUE TWO

Bristol Rovers win an eight-goal thriller and strengthen their promotion case

The final 5-3 score is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes the League Two promotion and relegation outlooks.

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FINAL SCOREBristol Rovers 5-3 Newport

ROVERS POINTS73.4 → 74.4

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION20.00% → 22.91%

NEWPORT RELEGATION9.23% → 10.47%

POINTS SWING

+1.0 point

Bristol Rovers remain projected sixth, now on 74.4 mean points.

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

20.00% → 22.91%

The top-three probability rises by +2.91 percentage points.

PLAY-OFFS

37.57% → 38.71%

The probability of finishing fourth through seventh also increases.

NEWPORT

53.8 → 53.1 points

Newport remain projected 18th as relegation risk rises to 10.47%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats Bristol Rovers v Newport County as unresolved; the after run locks the verified 5-3 result.100,000 paths · seed 1777259093

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical team ratings and every other League Two fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 1777259093

ASSUMPTION 3The comparison isolates the completed result rather than changing any squad-strength input.100,000 paths · seed 1777259093

EVIDENCE

Final score, scorers and competition schedule

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