Published 2026/27 schedule captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL League One

24 clubs · 46 matches each · two automatic promotion places · four-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERStockport County24.3% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES55224 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.44 : 1.17Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

League One probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Stockport County

24.3%TITLE

24.3% title probability, 42.2% for automatic and 0.1% danger risk.

78.3 expected pts64–92 range
02

Luton Town

21.1%TITLE

21.1% title probability, 37.7% for automatic and 0.2% danger risk.

77.4 expected pts63–91 range
03

Plymouth Argyle

20.4%TITLE

20.4% title probability, 37.1% for automatic and 0.2% danger risk.

77.2 expected pts63–91 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 3

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
BlackpoolvPeterborough United

HOME57%fair 1.75

DRAW22%fair 4.59

AWAY21%fair 4.75

xG 1.85–1.03score 1–0
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
MK DonsvLeicester City

HOME41%fair 2.46

DRAW25%fair 3.99

AWAY34%fair 2.91

xG 1.40–1.26score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Cambridge UnitedvHuddersfield Town

HOME38%fair 2.63

DRAW26%fair 3.91

AWAY36%fair 2.74

xG 1.31–1.27score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Leyton OrientvBarnsley

HOME43%fair 2.30

DRAW25%fair 4.08

AWAY32%fair 3.12

xG 1.49–1.24score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Notts CountyvBurton Albion

HOME48%fair 2.08

DRAW25%fair 4.07

AWAY27%fair 3.65

xG 1.54–1.09score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR3
Plymouth ArgylevBradford City

HOME53%fair 1.89

DRAW23%fair 4.28

AWAY24%fair 4.23

xG 1.68–1.04score 1–0
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL League One predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL League One simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Stockport County is the forecast leader on 78.3 projected points with a 24.3% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Stockport County78.3 pts24.3%
  2. 2Luton Town77.4 pts21.1%
  3. 3Plymouth Argyle77.2 pts20.4%
  4. 4Mansfield Town73.3 pts9.9%
  5. 5Oxford United70.2 pts5.3%
How does the EFL League One simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL League One in 2026/27?

Stockport County currently leads with a 24.3% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.