Published 2026/27 schedule, verified results through the 10 October afternoon kick-offs and postponements captured552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

EFL League One

24 clubs · 46 matches each · two automatic promotion places · four-team play-off field

FORECAST LEADERPlymouth Argyle34.3% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES552102 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%24/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,760 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.44 : 1.17Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 10 Oct, 19:10Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

League One probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Plymouth Argyle

34.3%TITLE

34.3% title probability, 55.5% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

80.9 expected pts68–94 range
02

Stockport County

26.7%TITLE

26.7% title probability, 47.6% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.2 expected pts66–92 range
03

Luton Town

12.2%TITLE

12.2% title probability, 26.3% for automatic and 0.2% danger risk.

75 expected pts62–88 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 8

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Bradford CityvBarnsley

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Cambridge United1–1AFC Wimbledon

HOME52%fair 1.94

DRAW24%fair 4.09

AWAY24%fair 4.18

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Mansfield TownvLeyton Orient

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
MK DonsvBromley

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Postponed · new date TBCPOSTPONED · R8
Notts CountyvBlackpool

Rearranged date and kick-off time to be confirmed.

NO ACTIVE MARKETFORECAST RETAINED
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00FT · R8
Plymouth Argyle0–1Burton Albion

HOME64%fair 1.56

DRAW20%fair 4.99

AWAY16%fair 6.27

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

EFL League One predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current EFL League One simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Plymouth Argyle is the forecast leader on 80.9 projected points with a 34.3% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Plymouth Argyle80.9 pts34.3%
  2. 2Stockport County79.2 pts26.7%
  3. 3Luton Town75.0 pts12.2%
  4. 4Oxford United72.6 pts7.4%
  5. 5Mansfield Town71.7 pts5.9%
  6. 6Bradford City70.8 pts4.4%
  7. 7Huddersfield Town68.7 pts2.9%
  8. 8Leicester City65.7 pts1.2%
  9. 9Stevenage65.7 pts1.3%
  10. 10Sheffield Wednesday64.5 pts0.9%
  11. 11Blackpool64.2 pts0.8%
  12. 12Wycombe Wanderers63.9 pts0.6%
  13. 13Reading63.5 pts0.6%
  14. 14Cambridge United61.8 pts0.4%
  15. 15MK Dons58.3 pts0.1%
  16. 16Doncaster Rovers57.8 pts0.1%
  17. 17Bromley56.3 pts0.1%
  18. 18Leyton Orient56.3 pts0.0%
  19. 19Barnsley55.9 pts0.0%
  20. 20Notts County55.0 pts0.0%
  21. 21Burton Albion53.2 pts0.0%
  22. 22Wigan Athletic52.6 pts0.0%
  23. 23Peterborough United50.4 pts0.0%
  24. 24AFC Wimbledon49.8 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest EFL League One model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the EFL League One simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the EFL League One in 2026/27?

Plymouth Argyle currently leads with a 34.3% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.