VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Plymouth's late winner strengthens their title position

The verified 2-1 final score is locked into the current table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the result's effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREPlymouth 2-1 Wimbledon

PLYMOUTH TITLE33.14% → 35.84%

PLYMOUTH POINTS80.1 → 80.9

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION53.41% → 56.42%

PLYMOUTH TITLE SWING

+2.70 percentage points

Xavier Amaechi's stoppage-time winner turned one point into three.

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

53.41% → 56.42%

Plymouth remain first in the predicted final table.

WIMBLEDON POINTS

50.3 → 49.8

The defeat removes 0.5 projected points.

WIMBLEDON RELEGATION

58.25% → 60.61%

The live forecast still projects Wimbledon to finish 23rd.

CURRENT TABLE

Completed results and predicted final standings

PLYMOUTH ARGYLECurrent: 1st · 19 points from 10Predicted finish: 1st · 80.9 points

AFC WIMBLEDONCurrent: 10th · 12 points from 9Predicted finish: 23rd · 49.8 points

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Plymouth Argyle versus AFC Wimbledon unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-1 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 261010

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 261010 and 100,000 matched paths, with team ratings and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 261010

ASSUMPTION 3The comparison isolates this completed result; it is a model estimate, not a guarantee of final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 261010

EVIDENCE

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