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VERIFIED RESULTS · EFL LEAGUE ONE

Luton move into the automatic-promotion places

Five final scores from 2 September are locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts show Luton's 2-0 win over Stockport as the strongest promotion-race movement.

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FINAL SCORELuton 2-0 Stockport
LUTON POINTS76.1 → 77.5
AUTOMATIC PROMOTION31.32% → 39.06%
STOCKPORT TITLE29.46% → 25.16%
LUTON POINTS SWING

+1.4 points

Luton rise from third to second in the predicted final table.

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

31.32% → 39.06%

The top-two probability rises by +7.73 percentage points.

LEAGUE ONE TITLE

16.16% → 21.79%

Luton's title probability increases by +5.63 percentage points.

STOCKPORT

47.95% → 43.69%

Stockport remain first in the predicted table, but fall to 78.3 projected points.

ALL FIVE RESULTS

Every completed score in the matched update

FULL TIMEBarnsley 2-1 BlackpoolLocked into the current table and 100,000-path forecast
FULL TIMEBurton Albion 4-1 AFC WimbledonLocked into the current table and 100,000-path forecast
FULL TIMELuton Town 2-0 Stockport CountyLocked into the current table and 100,000-path forecast
FULL TIMEWigan Athletic 3-1 MK DonsLocked into the current table and 100,000-path forecast
FULL TIMEReading 5-0 Mansfield TownLocked into the current table and 100,000-path forecast
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, five newly completed results

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves the five 2 September League One fixtures unresolved while retaining every earlier verified result.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks all five verified final scores before simulating every remaining League One fixture.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use seed 260902 and the same 100,000 paths, so the comparison changes results only, not club-strength inputs.100,000 paths · seed 260902
ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The play-off band covers positions third through sixth.100,000 paths · seed 260902
EVIDENCE

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