VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Burton's win at Plymouth shifts both ends of League One

The 1-0 away win is locked into the live League One table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the final score changes Plymouth's title race and Burton's survival outlook.

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FINAL SCOREPlymouth 0-1 Burton

PLYMOUTH TITLE37.22% → 28.67%

PLYMOUTH POINTS80.9 → 78.8

BURTON RELEGATION42.13% → 31.72%

PLYMOUTH TITLE SWING

-8.55 pts

Argyle remain first in the mean projection, but their title probability falls below 30%.

PLYMOUTH AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

57.52% → 47.92%

The home defeat removes 2.1 points from Plymouth's mean season projection.

BURTON RELEGATION

42.13% → 31.72%

Burton's away win cuts their relegation probability by 10.41 percentage points.

BURTON PROJECTED POINTS

53.2 → 55.5

Albion gain 2.3 projected points and move from 22nd to 21st in the mean forecast.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Plymouth Argyle versus Burton Albion unresolved. The after run locks the verified 0-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260926 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 3The other completed League One results on 26 September are held constant in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 260926

ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live League One table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260926

EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live forecast

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