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VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Stevenage's derby win dents Luton's promotion push

The 2-1 final score is locked into the live League One table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes the automatic-promotion and play-off races.

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FINAL SCOREStevenage 2-1 Luton
LUTON AUTOMATIC33.45% → 27.95%
STEVENAGE POINTS64.0 → 65.7
STEVENAGE PLAY-OFFS16.91% → 20.96%
LUTON AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

33.45% → 27.95%

The defeat cuts Luton's chance of a top-two finish by 5.50 percentage points.

STEVENAGE PLAY-OFFS

16.91% → 20.96%

The derby win raises Stevenage's play-off probability by 4.04 percentage points.

STEVENAGE PROJECTED POINTS

64.0 → 65.7

Stevenage add 1.7 mean projected points and move from 11th to 10th.

LUTON TITLE

17.25% → 13.44%

Luton's title probability falls by 3.81 percentage points after the away defeat.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Stevenage v Luton Town unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260911
ASSUMPTION 2Every other completed League One result is held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260911
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260911
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