Arsenal 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Arsenal currently project to finish 2nd on 73.3 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
ARS
CURRENT MEAN FINISH2nd
PROJECTED POINTS73.3
90% RANGE61 to 85
durable
55 points across the final 25 league matches, with 80% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.165 strength signal
5 arrivals and 16 departures are tracked. 10 carry a first-team model weight.
17th hardest
Remaining schedule index 100, labelled favourable after opponent strength and venue are combined.
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Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Arsenal match probabilities
H 26%D 27%A 46%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 65%D 22%A 13%
Modal score 2-0Full match prediction →H 37%D 27%A 35%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 75%D 16%A 8%
Modal score 2-0Full match prediction →H 29%D 26%A 45%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Arsenal transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Newcastle United → Arsenal
model assessedAston Villa → Arsenal
model assessedClub Brugge → Arsenal
model assessedBayer Leverkusen → Arsenal
model assessedLeeds United → Arsenal
ledger onlyArsenal → Al Hilal
model assessedArsenal → Barcelona
model assessedArsenal → Borussia Dortmund
ledger onlyArsenal → Hamburg
model assessedArsenal → Everton
model assessedArsenal → Besiktas
model assessedArsenal → Porto
model assessedArsenal → Werder Bremen
ledger onlyArsenal → Kustosija
ledger onlyArsenal → Georgia Southern Eagles
ledger onlyArsenal → Released
ledger onlyARS PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Arsenal model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Arsenal.
result
Arsenal 3-0 Lille and seven Champions League results: model impact
Lille's top-24 chance falls from 47.66% to 23.01% after Arsenal's verified 3-0 win; six more late finals are locked into the 100,000-path forecast.
result
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds: Premier League model impact
Arsenal’s comeback lifts their title probability from 31.02% to 36.40% in 100,000 matched paths.
result
Brighton 3-0 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Brighton's win moves them from sixth to fourth, adds 4.0 projected points and cuts Arsenal's title probability by 22.00 percentage points.
result
Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win moves Sunderland from 17th to 19th, cuts their projection by 2.6 points and raises relegation probability by 11.47 percentage points.
result
Napoli 0-1 Arsenal: Champions League model impact
Arsenal's away win raises their top-eight probability by 15.33 percentage points and moves them into second in the projected table.
result
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win applied to the title race and Aston Villa's projected finish.
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