Manchester City's title probability falls 14.20 points after Brighton win 1-0

Brighton reshape the Premier League title race

Manchester City’s verified 1-0 home defeat reduces their modeled title probability by 14.20 percentage points, from 37.57% to 23.37%. Their projected points fall from 74.5 to 70.8, and their top-four probability falls from 94.08% to 85.30%.

Brighton gain 2.6 projected points and their top-four probability rises by 10.41 points, from 26.47% to 36.88%. Arsenal’s title probability rises from 51.27% to 60.50%.

Coventry’s 3-1 win over Sunderland also matters at the bottom: modeled relegation probability falls from 76.17% to 59.48%.

Official Premier League results ↗ · Independent score corroboration ↗

Open current and predicted Premier League standings

Verification method

• Forty-four final scores were accepted only after an official competition source and an independent second domain corroborated each result.
• Before and after runs use identical deterministic seeds, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedules and model settings; only the relevant completed scores change.
• Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
• No unconfirmed transfer report changes a core input.

HORIZON 6.2 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · SCORER 1.1 · 100,000 matched paths for every affected forecast · verified 31 October 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.