Manchester United 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Manchester United currently project to finish 7th on 56.6 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
MUN
CURRENT MEAN FINISH7th
PROJECTED POINTS56.6
90% RANGE44 to 69
durable
50 points across the final 25 league matches, with 83% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.118 strength signal
7 arrivals and 12 departures are tracked. 9 carry a first-team model weight.
7th hardest
Remaining schedule index 101, labelled balanced after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Man Utd match probabilities
H 35%D 28%A 36%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 55%D 24%A 21%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 44%D 27%A 30%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 50%D 25%A 24%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 47%D 26%A 27%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Man Utd transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Aston Villa → Manchester United
model assessedBrighton & Hove Albion → Manchester United
model assessedChelsea → Manchester United
model assessedLeeds United → Manchester United
model assessedSwansea City → Manchester United
ledger onlyFortaleza CEIF → Manchester United
ledger onlyTottenham Hotspur → Manchester United
model assessedManchester United → Celta Vigo
ledger onlyManchester United → Middlesbrough
ledger onlyManchester United → Napoli
model assessedManchester United → Stockport County
ledger onlyManchester United → Trabzonspor
model assessedManchester United → Inter Miami
model assessedManchester United → Released
ledger onlyManchester United → Released
model assessedManchester United → Released
ledger onlyMUN PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Man Utd model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Manchester United.
result
Arsenal 3-0 Lille and seven Champions League results: model impact
Lille's top-24 chance falls from 47.66% to 23.01% after Arsenal's verified 3-0 win; six more late finals are locked into the 100,000-path forecast.
result
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham: Premier League model impact
The 1-1 draw cuts Manchester United's top-four probability from 26.86% to 20.31%, while Tottenham's relegation probability falls from 23.26% to 15.93%.
result
Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich: Premier League model impact
The five-goal win applied to United's top-four outlook and Ipswich's survival probability.
confirmed transfer
Carlos Baleba to Manchester United: confirmed model impact
The confirmed transfer applied to Manchester United's team strength and season forecast.
result
Hull 2-0 Manchester United: Premier League model impact
The result's effect on projected points, Europe and relegation probabilities.
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