Newcastle United vs Manchester United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 40.9%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Man Utd scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.4%
8.9%
7.8%
7.5%
6.5%
Newcastle 1.55 · Man Utd 1.36
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
33.4% to 49.6%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 5
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Man Utd.
Matchweek 13
Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.07 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.029 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.163 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.083 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Man Utd prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.9%. The draw is 26.5%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester United, with an estimated probability of 12.4%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.6% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
Newcastle United vs Manchester United is scheduled for Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional.