Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 59.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Man Utd scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.9%
10.2%
10.0%
9.6%
6.7%
Arsenal 1.97 · Man Utd 0.97
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
50.8% to 65.7%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 5
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Man Utd.
Matchweek 16
Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.3 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.071 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.055 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.12 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Man Utd prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Manchester United?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 59.6%. The draw is 23.1%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester United?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 1-1 Manchester United, with an estimated probability of 10.9%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester United?
The model gives both teams to score a 54.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.3% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Manchester United?
Arsenal vs Manchester United is scheduled for Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional.