Manchester City 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Manchester City currently project to finish 1st on 79.5 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
MCI
CURRENT MEAN FINISH1st
PROJECTED POINTS79.5
90% RANGE67 to 92
regression-adjusted
53 points across the final 25 league matches, with 65% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
-0.015 strength signal
9 arrivals and 23 departures are tracked. 18 carry a first-team model weight.
18th hardest
Remaining schedule index 99, labelled favourable after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Man City match probabilities
H 72%D 17%A 11%
Modal score 2-0Full match prediction →H 33%D 25%A 42%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 63%D 21%A 17%
Modal score 2-1Full match prediction →H 26%D 25%A 48%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 70%D 18%A 12%
Modal score 2-0Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Man City transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Chelsea → Manchester City
model assessedManchester City → Everton
model assessedEverton → Manchester City
model assessedManchester City → Ipswich Town
ledger onlyManchester City → Leeds United
model assessedPalmeiras → Manchester City
model assessedMarseille → Manchester City
ledger onlyNottingham Forest → Manchester City
model assessedLeicester City → Manchester City
model assessedSheffield Wednesday → Manchester City
ledger onlyTroyes → Manchester City
ledger onlyManchester City → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedManchester City → Newcastle United
model assessedManchester City → Tottenham Hotspur
model assessedManchester City → Al-Qadsiah
model assessedManchester City → Barcelona
model assessedMCI PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Man City model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Manchester City.
result
Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Dortmund: eleven late finals and forecast impact
Dortmund top eight: 50.98% to 25.21%. Eleven new finals plus a correction for nine omitted 17 September Europa League scores update three matched forecasts.
result
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City: Premier League model impact
Manchester City's title probability rises from 47.23% to 68.68% after the verified 3-0 away win, while Liverpool's top-four probability falls to 37.32%.
result
Porto 0-2 Manchester City: Champions League model impact
Haaland's double raises City's direct last-16 probability by 19.41 percentage points and moves them from sixth to second in the projected table.
confirmed transfer
Enzo Fernandez signs for Manchester City: confirmed model impact
The matched 100,000-path impact of Manchester City's confirmed Enzo Fernandez signing, using an 82% expected-minutes share.
confirmed transfer
Omar Marmoush joins Tottenham: confirmed model impact
The confirmed arrival measured across Tottenham's points and major season outcomes.
confirmed transfer
Ayyoub Bouaddi joins Manchester City: confirmed impact
The confirmed midfield arrival measured against Manchester City's previous model baseline.
FREE ACCOUNT · NO CARD REQUIRED
Follow your club, not a generic feed
Create your account, then optionally save a Premier League club to a personalised dashboard with its projected finish, projected points and major season probabilities. The live forecast remains free to explore.
- Saved club dashboard
- Live probability view
- Member referral rewards