Brighton win 5-0 — Palace relegation risk doubles
Crystal Palace's modeled relegation probability rises from 11.28% to 23.10%, while their predicted finish falls from 12th to 17th. Ten verified Matchweek 7 finals update the matched 100,000-path season forecast.
BRIGHTON 5-0 PALACEVerified final
PALACE RELEGATION11.28% → 23.10%
PALACE PREDICTED FINISH12th → 17th
MATCHED PATHS100,000
Derby defeat reshapes Palace's outlook
The 5-0 defeat raises Palace's relegation probability by 11.82 percentage points. Projected points fall from 47.9 to 43.8. Brighton's top-four probability rises from 43.68% to 49.10%, while projected points increase from 60.6 to 62.8.
The comparison locks all ten newly completed league results and holds the original simulation seed and remaining-match model settings fixed. It describes model movement, not certainty.
MATCHWEEK 7 · COMPLETED RESULTS
Ten verified finals now locked
Key before-and-after forecast moves
Relegation probability, projected points and predicted final position. Brighton's row shows relegation risk; their top-four probability is 43.68% → 49.10%.
| Club | Relegation | Projected points | Predicted finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 11.28% → 23.10% | 47.9 → 43.8 | 12th → 17th |
| Brighton | 0.22% → 0.05% | 60.6 → 62.8 | 3rd → 4th |
| Bournemouth | 17.73% → 7.79% | 45.9 → 48.9 | 15th → 10th |
| Everton | 7.33% → 13.29% | 50.0 → 46.4 | 11th → 14th |
| Tottenham | 17.91% → 9.44% | 46.2 → 48.4 | 14th → 12th |
Verification and assumptions
- All ten scores are completed 2026/27 Premier League results.
- 100,000 matched season paths use the same deterministic seed before and after the results.
- Completed points and goal difference are fixed; remaining fixtures stay uncertain.
- No unconfirmed transfer report changes the core forecast.
HORIZON 6.2 · verified 20 October 2026. Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Can Palace steady the season after the derby defeat?
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