Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 46.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Tottenham HotspurTOT46.2 projected points
ArsenalARS73.3 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Tottenham vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
9.4%
7.7%
7.3%
7.1%
Tottenham 1.29 · Arsenal 1.70
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
26.4% to 34.3%
The Tottenham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
14 vs 2
Current mean projected league positions for Tottenham and Arsenal.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.55 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.06 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.09 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.026 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 46.3%. The draw is 25.6%.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.3% probability.
When is Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.
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