Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 51.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Tottenham HotspurTOT49.8 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Tottenham vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.8%
9.6%
7.5%
7.0%
6.4%
Tottenham 1.28 · Arsenal 1.92
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
22.4% to 32.5%
The Tottenham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
14 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Tottenham and Arsenal.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.55 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.06 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.068 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.127 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 51.7%. The draw is 23.8%.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 62.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 62.0% probability.
When is Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.