Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 65.7%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.9%
9.9%
9.8%
9.3%
7.9%
Arsenal 2.18 · Bournemouth 0.90
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
58.3% to 70.4%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 15
Saturday, 12 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.44 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.035 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.124 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.058 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 65.7%. The draw is 20.7%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 10.9%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 53.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.3% probability.
When is Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth?
Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Saturday, 12 December 2026, time provisional.