Crystal Palace vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 57.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Crystal Palace vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.2%
9.9%
9.6%
9.2%
6.4%
Crystal Palace 1.03 · Arsenal 1.92
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
17.1% to 23.2%
The Crystal Palace home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
18 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Crystal Palace and Arsenal.
Matchweek 17
Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.59 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.015 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.179 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.139 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 57.1%. The draw is 23.7%.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Crystal Palace 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 11.2%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.5% probability.
When is Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional.