Sunderland 2026/27 Premier League prediction
Sunderland currently project to finish 20th on 37.1 points. This page exposes the probability range, form signal, transfer effect and next fixture prices behind that headline.
SUN
CURRENT MEAN FINISH20th
PROJECTED POINTS37.1
90% RANGE25 to 49
durable
32 points across the final 25 league matches, with 86% sustainability after underlying-performance regression.
+0.029 strength signal
6 arrivals and 15 departures are tracked. 7 carry a first-team model weight.
9th hardest
Remaining schedule index 101, labelled balanced after opponent strength and venue are combined.
d4352075
Every probability is tied to this versioned input state and 100,000 season paths.
NEXT FIVE LEAGUE FIXTURES
Sunderland match probabilities
H 58%D 23%A 19%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 36%D 27%A 37%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 46%D 26%A 28%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 28%D 25%A 46%
Modal score 1-1Full match prediction →H 64%D 21%A 15%
Modal score 2-1Full match prediction →CONFIRMED WINDOW
Sunderland transfer ledger
Rumours are excluded. This table contains confirmed movement only.
Tottenham Hotspur → Sunderland
model assessedLyon → Sunderland
model assessedIndependiente del Valle → Sunderland
model assessedLille → Sunderland
model assessedCrystal Palace → Sunderland
ledger onlyGlentoran → Sunderland
ledger onlySunderland → Pisa
ledger onlySunderland → Rennes
model assessedSunderland → Peterborough United
ledger onlySunderland → York City
ledger onlySunderland → Karpaty Lviv
ledger onlySunderland → Le Havre
ledger onlySunderland → Partizan Belgrade
ledger onlySunderland → Boreham Wood
ledger onlySunderland → Gateshead
ledger onlySunderland → Rangers
model assessedSUN PROBABILITY DESK
Latest Sunderland model analysis
Verified results, confirmed transfers and clearly labelled counterfactuals connected to Sunderland.
result
Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Europa League model impact
Sunderland's home win raises their top-eight probability by 15.25 percentage points, adds 1.4 projected points and moves them from eighth to fifth.
result
Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal: Premier League model impact
Arsenal's away win moves Sunderland from 17th to 19th, cuts their projection by 2.6 points and raises relegation probability by 11.47 percentage points.
result
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham: Premier League model impact
The home win applied to Sunderland's survival outlook and Fulham's projected finish.
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