Getafe lose 5-2 to Lugano — whose top-eight chance rises to 59.45%
Seventeen independently corroborated early Europa League and Conference League finals are locked into two matched 100,000-path forecasts. No live score is treated as final.
GETAFE 2-5 LUGANOVerified final
LUGANO TOP EIGHT26.53% → 59.45%
PREDICTED FINISH12th → 6th
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
The fifth goal matters
Lugano gain 32.92 percentage points for a top-eight finish and add 2.2 projected points. Their predicted finish rises from 12th to sixth.
The match was 2-4 around 90 minutes, but that was not the final score. FC Lugano's official match centre records Kevin Behrens scoring in the 92nd minute for 2-5, independently corroborated by Cadena SER. The model, page and artwork all use 2-5.
FC Lugano official match centre ↗ · Independent final-score corroboration ↗
8 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2740071368
UEFA Europa League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 96.07% → 95.62% | 99.99% → 100.00% | 20.1 → 20.1 | 1 → 1 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80.51% → 87.25% | 99.87% → 100.00% | 17.7 → 18.5 | 4 → 2 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 83.51% → 82.41% | 99.91% → 99.92% | 18.1 → 18.1 | 2 → 3 |
| Juventus | 84.23% → 78.35% | 99.93% → 99.96% | 18.1 → 17.3 | 3 → 4 |
| Olympiacos | 64.65% → 63.17% | 99.47% → 99.54% | 16.6 → 16.7 | 6 → 5 |
| Sunderland | 65.57% → 56.10% | 99.55% → 99.59% | 16.7 → 16.0 | 5 → 6 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 51.69% → 50.17% | 98.82% → 99.01% | 15.6 → 15.6 | 7 → 7 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 47.78% → 47.17% | 98.45% → 99.04% | 15.1 → 15.1 | 8 → 8 |
| Beşiktaş | 45.33% → 43.59% | 98.69% → 98.93% | 15.0 → 15.0 | 9 → 9 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 39.71% → 46.37% | 97.57% → 99.35% | 14.3 → 14.9 | 10 → 10 |
| Ferencváros | 25.45% → 34.83% | 95.62% → 99.64% | 13.6 → 14.6 | 12 → 11 |
| AC Milan | 32.16% → 30.65% | 96.10% → 96.52% | 13.6 → 13.6 | 11 → 12 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 16.02% → 26.30% | 89.56% → 97.49% | 12.3 → 13.5 | 13 → 13 |
| Crystal Palace | 16.29% → 15.18% | 87.47% → 88.11% | 11.9 → 11.9 | 14 → 14 |
| Salzburg | 8.63% → 7.80% | 79.63% → 80.86% | 11.4 → 11.4 | 15 → 15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.30% → 5.58% | 58.22% → 80.98% | 9.3 → 11.1 | 23 → 16 |
| Celtic | 7.82% → 7.01% | 79.24% → 80.01% | 11.0 → 11.0 | 16 → 17 |
| Real Sociedad | 5.59% → 5.12% | 74.50% → 76.07% | 10.3 → 10.3 | 17 → 18 |
| Omonia | 3.65% → 3.49% | 71.94% → 73.26% | 10.3 → 10.3 | 18 → 19 |
| Sparta Prague | 4.25% → 3.88% | 65.88% → 67.31% | 9.7 → 9.7 | 20 → 20 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 3.44% → 3.13% | 62.42% → 63.76% | 9.5 → 9.5 | 22 → 21 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 2.54% → 2.36% | 57.96% → 59.21% | 9.0 → 9.0 | 24 → 22 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.21% → 0.64% | 22.29% → 46.88% | 6.6 → 8.6 | 32 → 23 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 4.32% → 0.44% | 71.88% → 54.52% | 10.2 → 8.5 | 19 → 24 |
| OFI Crete | 1.41% → 0.39% | 50.97% → 44.49% | 8.7 → 8.1 | 25 → 25 |
| Anderlecht | 1.23% → 1.05% | 45.17% → 46.58% | 8.0 → 8.0 | 26 → 26 |
| GNK Dinamo | 2.68% → 0.38% | 60.84% → 34.89% | 9.6 → 7.8 | 21 → 27 |
| Celta de Vigo | 0.69% → 0.60% | 38.63% → 39.97% | 7.5 → 7.5 | 28 → 28 |
| Torreense | 0.71% → 0.12% | 37.73% → 26.81% | 7.9 → 7.1 | 27 → 29 |
| Lillestrøm | 0.37% → 0.29% | 28.10% → 29.30% | 6.8 → 6.8 | 30 → 30 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 0.22% → 0.16% | 25.95% → 27.08% | 6.7 → 6.7 | 31 → 31 |
| Lech Poznań | 0.16% → 0.04% | 21.24% → 19.19% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 33 → 32 |
| Celje | 0.20% → 0.17% | 21.42% → 22.06% | 6.3 → 6.3 | 35 → 33 |
| Levski Sofia | 0.17% → 0.14% | 22.03% → 22.98% | 6.4 → 6.3 | 34 → 34 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0.36% → 0.03% | 30.73% → 18.81% | 7.1 → 6.2 | 29 → 35 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 0.06% → 0.01% | 12.23% → 7.85% | 5.4 → 5.0 | 36 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Ferencváros | 2 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Juventus | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Sunderland | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Benfica | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Beşiktaş | 7 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Omonia | 10 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 11 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Olympiacos | 12 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Sparta Prague | 14 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| GNK Dinamo | 15 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Sturm Graz | 16 | 3 | 4 | -2 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 17 | 3 | 4 | -3 |
| Crystal Palace | 18 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| AC Milan | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| OFI Crete | 21 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| Torreense | 22 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
| Salzburg | 23 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
| Lillestrøm | 24 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Real Sociedad | 25 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Levski Sofia | 26 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 27 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
| Lech Poznań | 28 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
| Anderlecht | 29 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| Celta de Vigo | 30 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 31 | 2 | 0 | -3 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 32 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Celtic | 33 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 34 | 3 | 0 | -5 |
| Celje | 35 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 36 | 3 | 0 | -9 |
9 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2958288531
UEFA Conference League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 85.72% → 85.53% | 99.79% → 99.83% | 14.0 → 14.0 | 1 → 1 |
| Twente | 79.17% → 79.03% | 99.48% → 99.51% | 13.6 → 13.6 | 2 → 2 |
| Trabzonspor | 59.85% → 78.99% | 97.81% → 99.77% | 12.1 → 13.5 | 5 → 3 |
| Panathinaikos | 69.98% → 69.73% | 99.60% → 99.64% | 12.7 → 12.7 | 3 → 4 |
| Monaco | 63.91% → 63.86% | 98.60% → 98.62% | 12.4 → 12.4 | 4 → 5 |
| Lugano | 26.53% → 59.45% | 89.04% → 99.28% | 9.9 → 12.1 | 12 → 6 |
| Copenhagen | 58.53% → 57.13% | 97.62% → 98.50% | 11.9 → 11.7 | 6 → 7 |
| Sporting Braga | 51.86% → 51.77% | 96.76% → 96.97% | 11.4 → 11.4 | 7 → 8 |
| Brann | 19.30% → 35.19% | 82.87% → 96.77% | 9.2 → 10.7 | 16 → 9 |
| Gent | 28.75% → 28.81% | 89.25% → 90.06% | 10.1 → 10.1 | 9 → 10 |
| Hajduk Split | 29.17% → 29.40% | 89.18% → 89.83% | 10.1 → 10.1 | 10 → 11 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 41.22% → 28.42% | 95.22% → 94.66% | 10.7 → 9.8 | 8 → 12 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 22.61% → 22.41% | 86.29% → 87.26% | 9.5 → 9.5 | 13 → 13 |
| Ajax | 24.01% → 24.02% | 86.83% → 87.25% | 9.3 → 9.3 | 15 → 14 |
| Midtjylland | 16.14% → 15.97% | 78.86% → 79.53% | 8.6 → 8.6 | 17 → 15 |
| Sint-Truidense | 13.98% → 13.98% | 76.24% → 77.79% | 8.5 → 8.5 | 18 → 16 |
| Hearts | 23.35% → 9.48% | 86.48% → 79.37% | 9.4 → 8.3 | 14 → 17 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 3.69% → 8.56% | 51.11% → 78.11% | 6.5 → 8.2 | 24 → 18 |
| Getafe | 29.22% → 6.66% | 90.98% → 76.36% | 9.9 → 8.0 | 11 → 19 |
| Mjällby | 7.40% → 4.73% | 66.08% → 70.30% | 7.8 → 7.7 | 21 → 20 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 10.94% → 5.40% | 71.54% → 69.39% | 7.8 → 7.3 | 19 → 21 |
| Nordsjælland | 9.16% → 4.26% | 69.37% → 60.90% | 7.8 → 7.0 | 20 → 22 |
| Riga | 4.11% → 3.02% | 53.16% → 55.51% | 6.7 → 6.7 | 22 → 23 |
| Egnatia | 3.26% → 3.31% | 52.28% → 53.42% | 6.6 → 6.6 | 23 → 24 |
| Jablonec | 2.49% → 1.27% | 41.79% → 44.65% | 5.8 → 5.9 | 27 → 25 |
| Aarhus | 2.36% → 2.50% | 41.87% → 42.92% | 5.8 → 5.8 | 26 → 26 |
| Pafos | 3.52% → 0.87% | 49.72% → 38.85% | 6.4 → 5.6 | 25 → 27 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.93% → 1.04% | 37.33% → 39.02% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 28 → 28 |
| Borac | 1.54% → 1.45% | 36.12% → 37.89% | 5.4 → 5.5 | 29 → 29 |
| Kairat Almaty | 0.24% → 0.26% | 28.66% → 30.31% | 5.3 → 5.3 | 31 → 30 |
| Thun | 1.50% → 1.52% | 33.57% → 34.80% | 5.3 → 5.2 | 30 → 31 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 0.99% → 0.95% | 27.67% → 28.94% | 4.9 → 4.9 | 34 → 32 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 1.24% → 0.30% | 30.61% → 21.38% | 5.2 → 4.4 | 32 → 33 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 0.46% → 0.47% | 18.44% → 19.77% | 4.1 → 4.1 | 36 → 34 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.28% → 0.19% | 28.52% → 14.80% | 5.2 → 4.0 | 33 → 35 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0.57% → 0.05% | 21.29% → 8.05% | 4.5 → 3.1 | 35 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Lugano | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Brann | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Copenhagen | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Mjällby | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Atalanta | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Sint-Truidense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Hajduk Split | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Monaco | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Gent | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Twente | 15 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Nordsjælland | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Riga | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Egnatia | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Midtjylland | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 20 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| CSKA Sofia | 21 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Jablonec | 22 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Pafos | 23 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Hearts | 24 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 25 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Getafe | 26 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| Kairat Almaty | 27 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
| Ajax | 28 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Borac | 29 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 30 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Aarhus | 31 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Thun | 32 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 33 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Sporting Braga | 34 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 35 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 36 | 2 | 0 | -7 |
Final-only verification
- Seventeen independently corroborated finals are imported: eight Europa League and nine Conference League matches from the 17:45 BST block.
- The before runs leave only this completed block unresolved while retaining Kairat–Panathinaikos and every earlier verified final.
- Before and after use identical seeds, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedules and model settings. Reported changes are combined block effects, not isolated causal estimates of one match.
- Scores were accepted only after full-time status. Getafe–Lugano's 90th-minute 2-4 score was rejected; the final was 2-5. Juventus's apparent late winner was disallowed; the final was 2-2.
- Current standings from completed results remain distinct from predicted final standings. The 20:00 BST fixtures remain live and excluded.
Juventus–Rennes is recorded as 2-2 after an apparent late Juventus winner was disallowed. The later 20:00 UK kickoffs were still live at the cutoff and are excluded.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 22 October 2026. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
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