Final 36-team league-phase field and all 12 play-off ties verified · model draw active until UEFA publishes the draw144 fixtures · 100,000 paths
EUROPE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

UEFA Europa League

36-club league phase · eight matches each · top eight advance · positions 9–24 enter play-offs

FORECAST LEADERBenfica21.4% to win
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES1440 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE53%19/36 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION17,594 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.55 : 1.25Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKThu 27 Aug, 22:59Checking the strongest available live result sources.
PRE-DRAW MODE

The club field and pairings are a model state while qualifying is in progress. They will be replaced by UEFA’s confirmed field and draw, without treating provisional clubs as confirmed inputs.

BASELINE FORECAST

Europa League probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Benfica

21.4%TO WIN

95.3% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 21.4% chance of winning the tournament.

19.8 expected pts15–24 range
02

Juventus

14.0%TO WIN

91.9% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 14.0% chance of winning the tournament.

19.1 expected pts14–24 range
03

Olympique de Marseille

6.0%TO WIN

75.0% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 6.0% chance of winning the tournament.

17 expected pts11–22 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 1

Model-drawn opening matchups

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
JuventusvTorreense

HOME83%fair 1.21

DRAW12%fair 8.59

AWAY6%fair 18.07

xG 2.89–0.64score 2–0
16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
NEC NijmegenvBayer 04 Leverkusen

HOME11%fair 8.74

DRAW17%fair 5.79

AWAY71%fair 1.40

xG 0.84–2.38score 0–2
16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
BenficavLevski Sofia

HOME85%fair 1.17

DRAW10%fair 9.88

AWAY5%fair 21.56

xG 3.10–0.63score 3–0
16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Hapoel Be'er ShevavAC Milan

HOME16%fair 6.14

DRAW20%fair 4.89

AWAY63%fair 1.58

xG 0.96–2.10score 0–2
16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Olympique de MarseillevCelje

HOME75%fair 1.33

DRAW15%fair 6.50

AWAY10%fair 10.52

xG 2.57–0.81score 2–0
16 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
OFI CretevReal Sociedad

HOME26%fair 3.87

DRAW24%fair 4.14

AWAY50%fair 2.00

xG 1.17–1.71score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top eight is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

144 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

UEFA Europa League predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current UEFA Europa League simulator resolves 144 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Benfica is the forecast leader on 19.8 projected points with a 21.4% tournament win probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Benfica19.8 pts21.4%
  2. 2Juventus19.1 pts14.0%
  3. 3Olympique de Marseille17.0 pts6.0%
  4. 4Olympique Lyonnais16.2 pts4.7%
  5. 5Bayer 04 Leverkusen16.1 pts12.5%
How does the UEFA Europa League simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and knockout rounds are counted.

Who is predicted to win the UEFA Europa League in 2026/27?

Benfica currently leads with a 21.4% tournament win probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.