Official 144-match league-phase schedule · all 18 matchday-one finals reconciled on 14 October144 fixtures · 100,000 paths
EUROPE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

UEFA Europa League

36-club league phase · eight matches each · top eight advance · positions 9–24 enter play-offs

FORECAST LEADERBenfica21.4% to win
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES14418 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE53%19/36 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION17,594 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.55 : 1.25Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKWed 14 Oct, 22:26Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Europa League probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Benfica

21.4%TO WIN

91.4% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 21.4% chance of winning the tournament.

19 expected pts14–24 range
02

AFC Bournemouth

9.0%TO WIN

76.6% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 9.0% chance of winning the tournament.

17.2 expected pts12–22 range
03

Juventus

13.2%TO WIN

75.8% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 13.2% chance of winning the tournament.

16.9 expected pts11–22 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 2

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
Sparta PraguevLillestrøm

HOME52%fair 1.91

DRAW24%fair 4.19

AWAY24%fair 4.20

xG 1.76–1.11score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
AZ AlkmaarvHapoel Be'er Sheva

HOME70%fair 1.42

DRAW18%fair 5.60

AWAY12%fair 8.44

xG 2.31–0.83score 2–0
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
SalzburgvAC Milan

HOME29%fair 3.46

DRAW25%fair 4.04

AWAY46%fair 2.16

xG 1.24–1.63score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
Lech PoznańvBayer 04 Leverkusen

HOME17%fair 5.98

DRAW21%fair 4.82

AWAY63%fair 1.60

xG 0.97–2.07score 0–2
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
CeljevOmonia

HOME42%fair 2.37

DRAW25%fair 3.93

AWAY32%fair 3.09

xG 1.51–1.29score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R2
Olympique LyonnaisvCrystal Palace

HOME52%fair 1.94

DRAW24%fair 4.11

AWAY24%fair 4.15

xG 1.70–1.09score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top eight is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

144 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

UEFA Europa League predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current UEFA Europa League simulator resolves 144 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Benfica is the forecast leader on 19.0 projected points with a 21.4% tournament win probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Benfica19.0 pts21.4%
  2. 2AFC Bournemouth17.2 pts9.0%
  3. 3Juventus16.9 pts13.2%
  4. 4Bayer 04 Leverkusen16.8 pts12.7%
  5. 5Sunderland15.7 pts2.8%
  6. 6Union Saint-Gilloise15.1 pts5.7%
  7. 7Olympiacos14.8 pts4.6%
  8. 8Stade Rennais FC14.5 pts5.0%
  9. 9Olympique Lyonnais14.4 pts4.0%
  10. 10Beşiktaş13.2 pts2.2%
  11. 11Crystal Palace12.9 pts1.2%
  12. 12Salzburg12.5 pts0.4%
  13. 13AC Milan12.3 pts4.3%
  14. 14Ferencváros12.3 pts0.2%
  15. 15Celtic11.9 pts5.1%
  16. 16Olympique de Marseille11.8 pts3.5%
  17. 17AZ Alkmaar11.6 pts1.8%
  18. 18TSG Hoffenheim10.6 pts1.2%
  19. 19Sparta Prague10.5 pts0.1%
  20. 20Real Sociedad10.2 pts0.8%
  21. 21Sturm Graz9.9 pts0.2%
  22. 22Anderlecht9.5 pts0.2%
  23. 23OFI Crete9.2 pts0.0%
  24. 24Torreense8.6 pts0.0%
  25. 25Celta de Vigo8.5 pts0.2%
  26. 26Omonia8.5 pts0.0%
  27. 27Ararat-Armenia8.3 pts0.0%
  28. 28Jagiellonia Białystok8.1 pts0.0%
  29. 29GNK Dinamo7.8 pts0.0%
  30. 30Celje7.8 pts0.0%
  31. 31Viktoria Plzeň7.7 pts0.0%
  32. 32Lech Poznań7.2 pts0.0%
  33. 33NEC Nijmegen7.2 pts0.0%
  34. 34Lillestrøm6.7 pts0.0%
  35. 35Levski Sofia6.6 pts0.0%
  36. 36Hapoel Be'er Sheva6.0 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest UEFA Europa League model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the UEFA Europa League simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and knockout rounds are counted.

Who is predicted to win the UEFA Europa League in 2026/27?

Benfica currently leads with a 21.4% tournament win probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.